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Extreme Change in British Pound COT Data as BREXIT Vote Nears

Extreme Change in British Pound COT Data as BREXIT Vote Nears

2016-06-13 01:54:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
  • Extreme change in British Pound ownership profile
  • USD spec long position is small before FOMC
  • Elephants playing in the gold market

For more analysis and trade setups, visit SB Trade Desk

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The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Non-commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated June 7, 2016

Week (Data for Tuesdays)

52 week Percentile

US Dollar

2

Euro

71

British Pound

0

Australian Dollar

61

Japanese Yen

71

Canadian Dollar

94

Swiss Franc

14

Mexican Peso

33

Gold

94

Silver

77

Copper

12

Crude

84

Charts (all charts are continuous contract)

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

US Dollar ICEUS Continuous Contract

Extreme Change in British Pound COT Data as BREXIT Vote Nears

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Euro CME Continuous Contract

Extreme Change in British Pound COT Data as BREXIT Vote Nears

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

British Pound CME Continuous Contract

Extreme Change in British Pound COT Data as BREXIT Vote Nears

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

British Pound CME Continuous Contract

Extreme Change in British Pound COT Data as BREXIT Vote Nears

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The most recent COT data (as of 6/7) reveals that the 1 week net change in speculative-commercial positioning is one of the largest since at least 2001. Prior changes of this magnitude are shown with blue dots. Think about this as follows, ‘the ownership profile for British Pounds just underwent an extreme change with speculators selling and hedgers buying.’ This type of activity can signal pessimism extremes and therefore price lows.

Australian DollarCME Continuous Contract

Extreme Change in British Pound COT Data as BREXIT Vote Nears

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Japanese YenCME Continuous Contract

Extreme Change in British Pound COT Data as BREXIT Vote Nears

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Canadian DollarCME Continuous Contract

Extreme Change in British Pound COT Data as BREXIT Vote Nears

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Swiss Franc CME Continuous Contract

Extreme Change in British Pound COT Data as BREXIT Vote Nears

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Mexican Peso CME Continuous Contract

Extreme Change in British Pound COT Data as BREXIT Vote Nears

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Gold COMEX Continuous Contract

Extreme Change in British Pound COT Data as BREXIT Vote Nears

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Gold COMEX Continuous Contract

Extreme Change in British Pound COT Data as BREXIT Vote Nears

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Elephants are playing in the gold market. The 2nd largest 1 week change since at least 2001 in speculative buying and hedger selling occurred the week that ended 5/6 (optimism extreme-ended up being a high). Just 3 weeks later, the 2nd largest 1 week change since at least 2001 in speculative selling and hedger buying took place (pessimism extreme-ended up being a low).

Silver COMEX Continuous Contract

Extreme Change in British Pound COT Data as BREXIT Vote Nears

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Copper COMEX Continuous Contract

Extreme Change in British Pound COT Data as BREXIT Vote Nears

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Crude Oil NYMEX Continuous Contract

Extreme Change in British Pound COT Data as BREXIT Vote Nears

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market and co-founder of SB Trade Desk.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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