- Extreme change in British Pound ownership profile
- USD spec long position is small before FOMC
- Elephants playing in the gold market
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The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Non-commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.
Latest CFTC Release dated June 7, 2016
| Week (Data for Tuesdays) | |
|---|---|
| US Dollar | 2 |
| Euro | 71 |
| British Pound | 0 |
| Australian Dollar | 61 |
| Japanese Yen | 71 |
| Canadian Dollar | 94 |
| Swiss Franc | 14 |
| Mexican Peso | 33 |
| Gold | 94 |
| Silver | 77 |
| Copper | 12 |
| Crude | 84 |
Charts (all charts are continuous contract)
Non Commercials (speculators) – Red
Commercials – Blue
Small Speculators – Black
COTDiff (COT Index) – Black
US Dollar ICEUS Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Euro CME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
British Pound CME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
British Pound CME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
The most recent COT data (as of 6/7) reveals that the 1 week net change in speculative-commercial positioning is one of the largest since at least 2001. Prior changes of this magnitude are shown with blue dots. Think about this as follows, ‘the ownership profile for British Pounds just underwent an extreme change with speculators selling and hedgers buying.’ This type of activity can signal pessimism extremes and therefore price lows.
Australian DollarCME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Japanese YenCME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Canadian DollarCME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Swiss Franc CME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Mexican Peso CME Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Gold COMEX Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Gold COMEX Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Elephants are playing in the gold market. The 2nd largest 1 week change since at least 2001 in speculative buying and hedger selling occurred the week that ended 5/6 (optimism extreme-ended up being a high). Just 3 weeks later, the 2nd largest 1 week change since at least 2001 in speculative selling and hedger buying took place (pessimism extreme-ended up being a low).
Silver COMEX Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Copper COMEX Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Crude Oil NYMEX Continuous Contract
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele
Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market and co-founder of SB Trade Desk.
