EUR/USD TALKING POINTS
- Positive EU consumer sentiment data opens sets the scene ahead of the ECB President’s speech.
- Euro bid post-announcement.
EURO FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP
The euro garnered some favor this morning after economic and industrial data exceeded estimates (see calendar below). This could reiterate the hawkish rhetoric seen yesterday via several ECB officials including President Christine Lagarde. Although the headline consumer confidence figure slipped to record lows, the print was in line with expectations which shifted focus to the aforementioned economic and industrial metrics. Focus now shifts to central bank heads speaking later this afternoon at the ECB’s Sintra forum.
EUR/USD ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Source: DailyFX economic calendar
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
EUR/USD DAILY CHART
Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG
Initial reactions were positive giving euro a lift after yesterdays strong dollar rally pushing above the 1.05 support zone.
Resistance levels:
- Trendline resistance (black)
- 50-day EMA (blue)/1.0601
- 20-day EMA (purple)
Support levels:
- 1.0500
- 1.0340
IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: MIXED
IGCS shows retail traders are currently LONG on EUR/USD, with 63% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment however due to recent changes in long and short positioning we arrive at a short-term cautious disposition.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -1% | -4% | -3% |
| Weekly | 4% | -10% | -5% |
Contact and follow Warren on Twitter: @WVenketas
