Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
USD/CAD Price Outlook: Canadian Dollar Hinges on BoC Decision

USD/CAD Price Outlook: Canadian Dollar Hinges on BoC Decision

Rich Dvorak, Analyst


  • The Canadian Dollar faces high-impact event risk with the BoC rate decision due
  • USD/CAD price action could pivot lower if the Bank of Canada tapers QE further
  • Language on the output gap, rate hike guidance might also weigh on the Loonie
  • Bookmark our Real Time News page to see breaking market news and analysis
Top Trading Opportunities in Q4
Top Trading Opportunities in Q4
Recommended by Rich Dvorak
Get Your Free Top Trading Opportunities Forecast
Get My Guide

The Canadian Dollar traded mixed against key FX peers during Tuesday’s session. Loonie strength was seen relative to the Euro with EUR/CAD shedding 33-pips on the day. This likely tracked the rise in crude oil prices. Canadian Dollar weakness versus the US Dollar offset this, however, as USD/CAD price action ripped 61-pips higher in the wake of red-hot inflation data.

Looking ahead to Wednesday’s trading session, we could get better clarity in the monetary policy update expected from the Bank of Canada for where the Loonie might move next. High-impact event risk posed by the upcoming BoC rate decision due 14 July at 14:00 GMT is reflected by still elevated implied volatility readings for USD/CAD.


USDCAD Price Chart Canadian Dollar Forecast

Chart by @RichDvorakFX created using TradingView

As previously noted in my weekly Canadian Dollar forecast, the upcoming Bank of Canada rate decision will be towards the top of my radar this week with the BoC poised to further taper its asset purchase program. Slowing QE by more than $1-billion from the current pace of $3-billion could see a bullish reaction by the Canadian Dollar. So too could bringing forward expectations for the liftoff of interest rates.

USD/CAD Bullish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -13% -2% -6%
Weekly -31% 25% -4%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

As things stand, markets are currently pricing in four 0.25% rate hikes from the Bank of Canada over the next two years with the first expected before the end of 2022. On the other hand, tapering its asset purchase program by less than $1-billion might disappoint BoC hawks and Canadian Dollar bulls. Cautious outlook from the Bank of Canada, perhaps justified by economic activity undershooting projections provided in April, could similarly spark broad-based Canadian Dollar selling pressure.

Keep Reading – Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Breakout Eyes Pivotal Resistance

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.