Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
EUR/USD Near Three Month Lows Ahead of ECB Policy Review

EUR/USD Near Three Month Lows Ahead of ECB Policy Review

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist

Euro (EUR/USD) Price, Chart, and Analysis

  • EUR/USD remains on edge and may fade lower.
  • European Central Bank (ECB) Strategy Review now key.
EUR Forecast
EUR Forecast
Recommended by Nick Cawley
Download our Brand New Q3 Euro Forecast
Get My Guide

The ECB will release its keenly-awaited monetary policy strategy review at 11:00 GMT today, followed by a press conference and Q&A session with President Christine Lagarde and Vice-President Luis de Guindos at 12:30 GMT. The review will likely add clarification to the central bank’s inflation target with the wording of price stability expected to change from ‘below but close to 2%’ to ‘inflation of 2%’. The ECB may add also add that the 2% target is an average target and/or add a timeframe that they will watch moves in inflation before reacting. The ECB is also expected to give more detail on its climate change policy and any potential changes in its bond-buying program. The outcome of the review is likely to set a course for the single currency in the months and years ahead, especially if the central bank continues with its ultra-accommodative monetary policy.

For all market-moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar.

How to Trade EUR/USD
How to Trade EUR/USD
Recommended by Nick Cawley
How to Trade EUR/USD
Get My Guide

The six-week sell-off in EUR/USD continues with the pair printing a fresh three-month low on Wednesday. The chart set-up remains negative, highlighted by the sharp move lower in the 20-day simple moving average (red line) with little support seen until March 31 swing low at 1.1704. This level sits just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.1695. Below here horizontal support from the November 4 swing low at 1.16025.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart (June 2020 – July 8, 2021)

Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -1% -3% -3%
Weekly -12% -4% -8%
Learn How to Use Sentiment in Your Trading Strategy
Get My Guide

Retail trader data show 58.87% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.43 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 4.64% lower than yesterday and 2.93% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.79% lower than yesterday and 3.29% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall.

Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading bias.

What is your view on EUR/USD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.