News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @KyleR_IG: Restrictions to be eased in Victoria as the state records three new COVID-19 cases
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.88% Silver: -0.04% Gold: -0.20% View the performance of all markets via
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here:
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.19% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.04% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.04% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in USD/CHF are long at 75.86%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 82.70%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Dow Jones Retreats Ahead of FOMC, Nikkei 225 and ASX 200 Open Lower
  • 🇦🇺 Westpac Leading Index MoM (MAY) Actual: -0.06% Previous: 0.19%
  • MSCI #EmergingMarkets Index (EEM), which is heavily weighed in Chinese stocks, has been struggling to breach the 54.97 - 55.34 inflection zone A hawkish #Fed (especially amid ebbing #PBOC liquidity measures), could risk weighing the index Breach under 20-day SMA exposes MAR low
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here:
  • Natural gas spot prices have been on the rise, recapturing a key trendline, following the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. Where can prices head from here? Find out from @FxWestwater here:
US Dollar Price Outlook: Is a USD/CAD Reversal on the Horizon?

US Dollar Price Outlook: Is a USD/CAD Reversal on the Horizon?

Peter Hanks, Strategist

USD/CAD Price Outlook:

  • USD/CAD posted an encouraging bounce off recent lows to avoid deeper losses
  • That said, the pair remains near its lowest levels in nearly four years and calling a bottom at this stage could be presumptuous
  • Further still, IG client sentiment data reveals retail traders continue to increase their long-exposure, suggesting the pair may fall further

US Dollar Price Outlook: Is a USD/CAD Reversal on the Horizon?

USD/CAD enjoyed a bounce off of support this week as broader Dollar strength helped to propel the pair higher. Gains have accumulated to create a encouragingly weekly performance thus far as the pair looks to stem a decline that has persisted since early 2020. That said, there is much more work to be done if USD/CAD is to reverse higher in earnest and there seem to be few scheduled events that could spark such a continuation higher.

US Dollar (USD/CAD) Price Chart: Weekly Time Frame (January 2015 – May 2021)

usd/cad weekly price chart

Last week we noted a slight hawkish shift from the Federal Reserve could help drive US strength and a USD/CAD rally, but follow-through off the back of this theme has been minimal thus far. Upcoming Core PCE readings from the United States could influence market sentiment surrounding the Fed’s admission if inflation comes in higher than expected, but awaiting data results is far from a sound trading strategy. With that in mind, traders may have to look to technical developments to generate bullish momentum in the interim.

Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (April 2020 – May 2021)

US Dollar Price Outlook: Is a USD/CAD Reversal on the Horizon?

To that end, a break above the descending trendline from the pair’s June 2020 low would be an encouraging start and could allow USD/CAD to take aim at subsequent resistance. Secondary resistance may be encountered along the descending trendline from the pair’s 2020 peak.The levels have influenced price numerous times throughout the last year and currently trade near 1.2184 and 1.2273 respectively.

In the bigger picture, any longer-term breakout would have to pierce the zone of resistance from 1.2618 to 1.2683 before continuing higher in earnest. Given the distance from the current spot price to the barrier, however, a breakout would need to be well underway before the level is tested and momentum at such a stage may help drive price through the longstanding barrier.

US Dollar Price Outlook: Is a USD/CAD Reversal on the Horizon?

While the pair’s performance in the week thus far is encouraging and breaks higher could help generate bullish momentum, IG client sentiment data reveals retail clients are overwhelming net-long USD/CAD. In fact, the ratio of USD/CAD traders long to short is higher now than any time in the last six months. Since we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, retail positioning data may suggest the pair will continue to fall.

With that in mind, traders looking to gain bullish exposure in the US Dollar may want to look elsewhere until further topside progress is established. Once ground has been gained and momentum has shifted, the outlook for bullish USD/CAD exposure may shift favorably. On the other hand, the current risk-reward profile to the downside is largely unattractive given the reversal potential. In the meantime, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates and analysis.

--Written by Peter Hanks, Strategist for

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.