News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @KyleR_IG: https://t.co/dvJqnUZcsk
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 89.02%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 74.05%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/5Tt68HR25h
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 BCB Copom Meeting Minutes due at 11:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-11
  • A “PIP” – which stands for Point in Percentage - is the unit of measure used by forex traders to define the smallest change in value between two currencies. Learn how to understand pips in forex here: https://t.co/AfAhmIoVZv https://t.co/dOChzDPvBW
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.61% Gold: 0.26% Oil - US Crude: -0.88% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/FgSiJ4PcT3
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.31% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.27% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.24% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.05% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.00% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.13% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/qhfolQdLUG
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.43% US 500: -0.70% France 40: -1.89% FTSE 100: -2.07% Germany 30: -2.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/HjUzIke5gV
  • ZEW economic sentiment soars in May. #zew #euro #eurusd @DailyFX https://t.co/jEIeoeotgq
  • 💶 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (MAY) Actual: 84 Previous: 66.3 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-11
  • 🇩🇪 ZEW Current Conditions (MAY) Actual: -40.1 Expected: -41.3 Previous: -48.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-11
Euro Latest: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Price Action Set-Up for ECB

Euro Latest: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Price Action Set-Up for ECB

Justin McQueen, Analyst

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Price Analysis & News

  • ECB Unlikely to Provide a Surprise
  • EUR/USD Supported on Dips to 1.20
  • EUR/GBP Recovering From Last Week’s Reversal

EUR/USD: Today’s ECB meeting is unlikely to stir much in the way of volatility as implied vols signal a breakeven (implied move) of 44pips. Since the last meeting, newsflow has been lacking somewhat with the Euro largely recovering amid a narrowing of bond spreads in favour of the Euro, alongside the EU’s rate of inoculations improving and thus taking EUR/USD back above the 1.20 handle. With no update to economic projections (until June), today’s meeting be about taking stock of the current backdrop, needless to say, the meeting should have a limited impact on the Euro.

Yesterday’s drop in the Euro had been short-lived as dip buyers defended the 1.20 handle, an encouraging sign for bulls. However, with the 100DMA remaining firm, the pair looks to be consolidating. The level to watch on the downside will be 1.1990 (prior resistance, now support), should this give way eyes will be on 1.1956 and 1.1925 where the 50 and 200DMA reside respectively. On the topside, key resistance sits at the 1.21 handle, which also coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the YTD range. While the pair is consolidating in the near term, dip-buying at key areas of support keeps the outlook positive and it will take a close below the 200DMA to negate this view.

EUR/USD Chart: Daily Time Frame

Euro Latest: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Price Action Set-Up for ECB

Source: Refinitiv

Watch the Spread: EUR/USD vs US/GE 10YR Bond Spread

Euro Latest: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Price Action Set-Up for ECB

Source: Refinitiv

EUR/GBP: The cross has continued to recover from last week’s reversal as EUR/GBP trades at 0.8660. That said, firm resistance situated at 0.8700-0.8720 is likely to cap rallies in the short-term and prompt renewed pressure in the cross back to 0.8600. Alongside this, as I have said previously, real yields between the UK and EU continue to point to lower levels for the cross and thus I remain bearish on EUR/GBP for a move back towards the mid-0.85s. Although, this view would be reassessed should the cross breach 0.8730-35. A point to note is that we are now approaching the Scottish Elections and while I am of the view that this will have a limited impact on the Pound, I suspect a slight political risk premium will be attached to the Pound in the next few weeks.

EUR/GBP Chart: Daily Time Frame

Euro Latest: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Price Action Set-Up for ECB

Source: Refinitiv

UK/GE Real Yield Spread

Euro Latest: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Price Action Set-Up for ECB

Source: Refinitiv

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES