News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • EUR/USD sheds 40-pips in a matter of minutes as the US Dollar strengthens broadly. Get your $EURUSD market update from @RichDvorakFX here:
  • Well, I don't think Powell will temper interest/concern around central banks having to pullback in the foreseeable future. Both 'taper tantrum' and 'operation twist' search interest charging higher:
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: -0.86% FTSE 100: -1.20% France 40: -1.27% Wall Street: -2.32% US 500: -2.53% View the performance of all markets via
  • Nasdaq now down over 3% today, confirming 10% correction territory. $QQQ
  • $USDCHF has continued to strength today, now above the 0.9280 level, trading around the highs hit in late September. The pair has performed strongly since mid February as US rates have continued higher, rising from 0.8900 by nearly 400 pips to its current levels. $USD $CHF
  • Against the backdrop of rising bond yields, both the Bank of England and European Central Bank will meet over the next two weeks. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:
  • Oil - US Crude IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their least net-long Oil - US Crude since Jan 06 when Oil - US Crude traded near 5,008.80. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to Oil - US Crude strength.
  • US Indices are struggling again today. The Nasdaq is now down 10% from the record highs of mid February, entering correction territory. The $VIX has risen to its highest level since last week's bond market event. DOW -1.31% NDX -2.37% SPX -1.48% RUT -2.68% $DIA $QQQ $SPY $IWM
  • #Bitcoin battle-lines drawn. . . Updated 240min $BTCUSD
  • Overall, Powell sticks with the current Fed stance and hence the move with the USD and UST yields higher, while gold tests 1700
Stock Market Forecast: Earnings and Volatility Set to Continue in February

Stock Market Forecast: Earnings and Volatility Set to Continue in February

Peter Hanks, Strategist

Stock Market Outlook:

Stock Market Forecast: Earnings and Volatility Set to Continue in February

The US indices have reclaimed much, if not all, of the ground they forfeited in the dying days of January as market conditions return to normal amid a drawdown in rampant speculation from retail traders. While normality might usher in a gradual decline in volatility, history suggests the VIX may remain somewhat elevated in the month of February.

S&P 500 and vix seasonality

Source: Bloomberg, John Kicklighter

According to VIX data over the last thirty years, February might serve as transitionary month for volatility as the market emerges from the volatility-stricken months of Fall and Winter, into Spring where market activity then gradually declines into the Summer doldrums. With that in mind, wild swings in price action might continue in the weeks ahead but should become more measured as the year matures. Still, past performance is not indicative of future results and, as we saw just twelve months ago, anything can happen in the market.

Equities Forecast
Equities Forecast
Recommended by Peter Hanks
Get Your Free Equities Forecast
Get My Guide

Regardless, the market will require developments to stoke volatility and the continuation of earnings season should serve as a consistent catalyst as February progresses. While the earnings of the big-ticket tech corporations have come and gone, many notable companies have yet to report. In addition to earnings, fiscal policy might play a role in stoking market volatility as the Biden administration considers an array of stimulus offerings.

earnings calendar february

Source: IG

Further still, non-farm payrolls data is slated for release early Friday. Recent reports have missed forecasts but an optimistic ADP report earlier this week may throw prior notions out the window. Either way, the data release opens the door to a plethora of event-driven trading strategies.

NFP and Forex: What is NFP and How to Trade It?

Suffice it to say, US equities may continue to play off familiar fundamental themes in the month ahead, but history suggests volatility remains a threat and should be eyed closely. In the meantime, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates and analysis.

--Written by Peter Hanks, Strategist for

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.