News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/9po5Lg4vnR
  • The Japanese Yen is eyeing the upcoming Bank of Japan rate decision and CPI figures, but JPY crosses will likely remain dependent on broader market sentiment. Get your weekly $JPY forecast from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/x9rbQpPfWe https://t.co/2x1R5XTVea
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/uCaWQiu4Ly
  • Crude and Brent oil are on track to extend higher as Gulf Coast supply disruptions and a positive OPEC report bolster sentiment. Uranium is on a massive surge, aided by the famous Wall Street Bets group. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/XrpV0jcy8e https://t.co/g2To3LmUah
  • RT @michaeljburry: Read thread.
  • The Australian Dollar has retraced from August lows when looking at AUD/JPY and AUD/CAD. However, the AUD/NZD downtrend is intact, will a reversal there appear as well? Find out: https://t.co/8LmgqLLGJO https://t.co/AueigVsuk4
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones and DAX 30 could be at risk of falling as retail traders continue increasing their upside exposure in these indices. What are the key technical levels to watch for? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/OJByiwIppr https://t.co/P1iOONG90N
  • The US Dollar continues to hold its ground against most ASEAN currencies as recent downtrends lose momentum. What is the road ahead for USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP and USD/IDR? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/UcleaZEAaW https://t.co/62bGLvt8fE
  • The Canadian Dollar has been caught in broad ranges against the Euro and the US Dollar, but can the upside bias in USD/CAD and EUR/CAD prolong? Find out here:https://t.co/8DubboXsjv https://t.co/A0sIYo2iP1
  • Want to hear my thoughts on the US Dollar? Check out yesterday's recording with #AuzBiz hosted by @KaraOrdway on 'The Trade' We discussed a #USD index, Treasury yields, $USDJPY, $AUDUSD and $NZDUSD https://t.co/yxwquL1btp https://t.co/RtWjlN6kpv
CAD/CHF 1Q Forecast: Long CAD/CHF – A Combination of Risk Trends and Positioning

CAD/CHF 1Q Forecast: Long CAD/CHF – A Combination of Risk Trends and Positioning

Justin McQueen, Strategist

CAD/CHF 1Q Forecast: Long CAD/CHF – A Combination of Risk Trends and Positioning

Advertisement

2020 has been a year like no other and seared into memory. Thankfully, with multiple vaccines scheduled to be rolled out and with global monetary and fiscal stimulus here to stay, 2021 looks to be a better year. As the vaccination process gets underway, negative tail risks are likely to recede, while lockdown measures will also continue to be eased, thus allowing for a brighter economic outlook. Much like 2020, with global interest rates at the zero bound, “RORO” (Risk On Risk Off) should remain a key driver for FX. As such, my trade of the year is to position that way with a bullish outlook on CAD/CHF.

As the global economic outlook improves with pent up demand supporting growth, risks are tilted to the upside for oil prices, which in turn is likely to keep the Canadian Dollar afloat, particularly against the likes of the Swiss Franc.

G10 FX Correlation with Oil Prices

G10 FX Correlation with Oil Prices Chart, Refinitiv Datastream

Positioning: Taking a look at institutional position, speculators continue to maintain a sizeable short in the Canadian Dollar, while Swiss Franc net longs are trading at extremes. As such, CAD/CHFupside may well be exacerbated by an unwind in short CAD/CHF positioning.

Institutional positioning, key currency pairs

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES