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USD/JPY - A Fresh Eight-Month Low Ahead of US Jobs Report as Vote Count Continues in Key States

USD/JPY - A Fresh Eight-Month Low Ahead of US Jobs Report as Vote Count Continues in Key States

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


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USD/JPY Price, News and Analysis:

  • US jobs report expected to show an improving labor market.
  • US presidential election still not decided.

The monthly US jobs report is released today at 13:30 GMT and is expected to show the jobs market improving but at a slow pace and from a low level. The unemployment rate is seen falling to 7.7% in October from a prior reading of 7.9%, while non-farm payrolls are expected at 600k compared to September’s 661k. This monthly figure is normally seen as a high importance market release but this month all eyes are focused on the election vote count in the US, where it seems increasingly likely that former vice president Joe Biden will move into the White House in January next year. This month’s NFPs will take a backseat to any voting updates and news releases from the US.

NFP and Forex – What is NFP and How to Trade It?

The US dollar has weakened further this week and touched a new two-month low as the safe-haven appeal of the greenback gave way to risk-on market sentiment. While the Japanese Yen is also seen as a safe-haven, it is the sharp decline in the US dollar that has sent USD/JPY spinning lower and back to lows last seen in mid-March. The psychologically important 104.00 level finally gave way yesterday - leaving little in the way of horizontal support until 101.185, the March 9 spike low - a situation that the Bank of Japan will be monitor closely. The CCI shows the market is currently in oversold territory which may slow down further losses for the pair.

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USD/JPY Daily Price Chart (February – November 6, 2020)

USD/JPY Bearish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -1% -3% -2%
Weekly 38% -26% -13%
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IG Retail trader datashow74.17% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.87 to 1.We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to fall.Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/JPY-bearish contrarian trading bias

What is your view on USD/JPY – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.