News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • USD/CHF May Reverse Downtrend if Falling Wedge Plays Out - #USDCHF chart https://t.co/6VXrYbCodi
  • The Euro's technical posture against the US Dollar, Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar shows potential for near-term directional shifts. Here are the EUR/USD, EUR/AUD and EUR/JPY levels to watch. Get your $EUR market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/7rW8FGPBUt https://t.co/Lu6KAC3YzQ
  • #Dogecoin up over 13% as Elon Musk tweets he is working with #Doge devs to improve system transaction efficiency, adding it is 'potentially promising' This is a day after #Tesla suspended Bitcoin payments for vehicle purchases, courtesy of @FxWestwater - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2021/05/12/Bitcoin-BTC-Plunges-on-Tesla-Bitcoin-Suspension-AUDUSD-Spars-USD-Strength.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/NlPFPbGGSL
  • RT @Yeap_IG: Historical 10-2 #Treasury spread after each recession may suggest further room for upside for 10-year #yield from current leve…
  • 10 out of 11 S&P 500 sectors ended higher, with 88.1% of the index’s constituents closing in the green. Industrials (+1.90%), financials (+1.87%) and utilities (+1.79%) were among the best performers, whereas energy (-1.35%) trailed behind. https://t.co/HUPMnYAEsL
  • US Dollar Outlook: DXY Index Eyes Retail Sales Data, Yields -via @DailyFX Link to Full Analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2021/05/13/us-dollar-outlook-dxy-index-eyes-retail-sales-data-yields.html $USD #Forex #Trading https://t.co/10Hb8pYSp1
  • 🇳🇿 Business NZ PMI (APR) Actual: 58.4 Previous: 63.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-13
  • The Japanese Yen may fall against its major peers, but there is room for a near-term climb that wouldn’t necessarily overturn a bearish technical bias. USD/JPY is eyeing support. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/AEnQCXnwAL https://t.co/kUV7xoSWxZ
  • Heads Up:🇳🇿 Business NZ PMI (APR) due at 22:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 63.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-13
  • Chile central bank holds rate at 0.5% - BBG
Gold, Silver Price Forecast: Will 100-Day SMA Hold or Break?

Gold, Silver Price Forecast: Will 100-Day SMA Hold or Break?

Margaret Yang, CFA, Strategist

GOLD & SILVER PRICE OUTLOOK:

  • Gold prices consolidate at US$ 1,860 after breaking a key support at US$ 1,910
  • Silver prices are testing the 100-Day SMA at 22.80, with momentum biased to the downside
  • The US Dollar retraces slightly from a two-month high, but may rise again on election and Brexit risks

Gold and silver prices consolidated for a third consecutive week as traders kicked off profit-taking following a massive bull rally seen from March to August. Unwinding activities are also based on a tepid inflation outlook as job growth appears to have slowed recently and a second viral wave has likely emerged in Europe. A stronger US Dollar also weighed on precious metal prices. A clear negative correlation between gold and the US Dollar Index (DXY) was observed in the past 52 weeks (chart below)

Gold has retraced over 10% from its all-time high of US$ 2,075 observed on the 7th August 2020, after rising more than 40% from March low. Similarly, silver has fallen over 27% from its recent peak of US$ 29.40, after rallying over 150% from March through to August.

The near-term outlook for gold largely depends on the US Dollar, which is facing a string of market events this week. The final round of Brexit talks on Monday in Brussels, the first US presidential election debate on Tuesday and US non-farm payroll data on Friday will be critical for the US Dollar.

Gold Price vs. US Dollar Index – 52 weeks

Please add a description for the image.

Source: Bloomberg, DailyFX

From a long-term perspective, however, gold prices appeared to have entered a period of consolidation within a mega bull trend. The macro-environment (ultra-low interest rates and QE) remains accommodative to precious metal prices, albeit a short-term pullback is underway.

Gold Price vs. Fed Balance Sheet

Gold, Silver Price Forecast: Will 100-Day SMA Hold or Break?

Source: Bloomberg, DailyFX

Technically, gold prices are consolidating at the 100-day SMA (1,870) after breaking the 50-day line last week. The momentum appears biased towards the downside, with the next key support level likely found at US$ 1,809 – a previous resistance level.

Gold PriceDaily Chart

Gold, Silver Price Forecast: Will 100-Day SMA Hold or Break?

IG Client Sentiment indicates that gold traders are heavily leaning towards the long side, with 82% of positions net long, while 18% remain net short. As gold prices fell, traders favored short (+4%) exposure rather over long (+3%) however, compared to a week ago, traders have trimmed some short (-5%) bets while adding some long (+7%) positions.

Gold, Silver Price Forecast: Will 100-Day SMA Hold or Break?

SILVER PRICE OUTLOOK:

Silver prices are also testing the 100-day SMA at US$ 22.80, which is a critical support level to watch. Near-term momentum remains bearish-biased, with the next support level likely found at US$ 21.80 – the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement.

Silver PriceDaily Chart

Gold, Silver Price Forecast: Will 100-Day SMA Hold or Break?

--- Written by Margaret Yang, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Margaret, use the Comments section below or @margaretyjy on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES