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USD/JPY Price Analysis: Dollar-Yen Shorts Surge, Yields Eyed

USD/JPY Price Analysis: Dollar-Yen Shorts Surge, Yields Eyed

2020-08-13 22:15:00
Rich Dvorak, Analyst
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US DOLLAR TO JAPANESE YEN OUTLOOK: USD/JPY PRICE ACTION RALLIES WITH TREASURY YIELDS AS RETAIL FX TRADERS RAMP SHORT POSITIONS

  • USD/JPY price action has spiked 145-pips over the last five trading sessions
  • IG Client Sentiment data reveals a 16% increase in USD/JPY short positioning
  • US Dollar to Japanese Yen could continue its climb alongside Treasury yields

USD/JPY has been on a tear higher since last Friday. In addition to a stretch of broad-based JPY weakness, the US Dollar appears to be rallying on the back of an upbeat July 2020 NFP report, as well as surging Treasury yields. Spot USD/JPY price action now trades higher by about 100-pips month-to-date.

USD/JPY PRICE CHART OVERLAID WITH TEN-YEAR TREASURY TO JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS YIELD SPREAD: 4-HOUR TIME FRAME (08 JULY TO 13 AUGUST 2020)

USD JPY Price Chart USDJPY US Treasury to JGBs Ten Year Yield Spread

Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView

That said, retail FX traders have ramped their short positioning on the Dollar-Yen over the last 24-hours. This is indicated by the latest IG Client Sentiment Report, which details a 16% rise in USD/JPY shorts on the day as discussed in the webinar recording above.

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USD/JPY SHORT POSITIONING JUMPS – IG CLIENT SENTIMENT (13 AUGUST 2020)

USDJPY Price Chart USD JPY US Dollar to Japanese Yen FX Trader Positioning IGCS IG Client Sentiment

The upcoming release of monthly retail sales and consumer sentiment data stand out as potential catalysts – particularly if the reports deviate materially from market expectations. According to the DailyFX Economic Calendar, retail sales data is due Friday, August 14 at 12:30 GMT, and the consensus estimate is looking for a 1.9% rise month-on-month. Preliminary consumer sentiment data is slated to cross the wires shortly after at 14:00 GMT, and the median economist forecast stands at a reading of 72.0 for the current month.

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-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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