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British Pound (GBP) Latest: GBP/USD Shrugs Off UK Employment Data, Focus Now on Q2 GDP

British Pound (GBP) Latest: GBP/USD Shrugs Off UK Employment Data, Focus Now on Q2 GDP

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist

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GBP/USD Price, Chart and Analysis:

  • The decrease in UK employment (q/q) was the largest since 2009.
  • Bank of England ready to do more if the economy weakens further.
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Sterling opens the session little changed after the latest UK jobs and wages report showed that 730,000 people had lost their jobs between March and June this year, while the claimant count reached 2.7 million in July, an increase of 116.8% compared to March this year. The decrease in employment on the quarter was the largest quarterly decrease since May to July 2009. While the figures overall were not as bad as expected, unemployment is expected to jump sharply later in the year when the UK furlough scheme finishes at the end of October.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that while employment is weakening and unemployment is largely unchanged, ‘there are some signs of economic inactivity rising with people out of work not currently looking for work compared with the last quarter’.

Wednesday’s preliminary Q2 GDP data (07:00 BST) now heaves into view and the numbers are expected to show the UK economy shrinking by 20%+ q/q due to the COVID-19 lockdown. According to a recent article published in The Times newspaper, BoE deputy governor Dave Ramsden said that while he was confident that there would be no more quarters of negative growth, the central bank stands prepared to increase QE to help boost the UK economy if needed.

DailyFX analyst Justin McQueen will cover the UK Q2 GDP live from 06:45 BST on Wednesday.

For all market-moving data releases and events see the DailyFX Economic Calendar

GBP/USD remains trendless this week with the pair still stuck in Monday’s trading range of 1.3020 to 1.3106. GBP/USD does look as though it wants to press higher, aided in part by last week’s golden cross formation (50-dma rising through the 200-dma) but will likely wait for Wednesday’s data release. Additional short-term support appears between 1.2980 and 1.3008 before the 20-dma currently sitting at 1.2962.

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GBP/USD Daily Price Chart (January – August 11, 2020)

GBP/USD Bearish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 4% -11% -1%
Weekly 31% -27% 6%
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What is your view on Sterling – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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