News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • $GBPCHF has strengthened today, rising from a morning low around 1.2105 to currently trade around 1.2190. The pair is currently testing its highest levels since the onset of the Covid pandemic. $GBP $CHF https://t.co/q2bH28zYi6
  • ECB's Villeroy says we monitor carefully the implications of the exchange rate on the inflation outlook $EUR
  • Forex Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.63% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.49% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.42% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.29% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.15% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.13% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/SuCtbOvRLU
  • Poll: Which of these extraordinarily volatile and recently popular assets is most disconnected from 'traditional fundamentals' and fully in the hands of the speculative tribe?
  • Indices Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 2.01% France 40: 1.51% FTSE 100: 0.51% Wall Street: 0.15% US 500: 0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/6OgqApsW9T
  • The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence survey edged up with this morning's January reading, but that marginal uptick can't touch the impressive charge of speculative conviction via the likes of the $SPX https://t.co/zztL1tzlfE
  • $AUDUSD has strengthened by around 50 pips this morning, climbing from a morning low below 0.7700 to currently trade around 0.7750, its highest level since last week. $AUD $USD https://t.co/UDJ8i9mifv
  • Italian PM Conte has informed his cabinet that he will resign, which has come ahead of the Senate vote on the justice minister’s annual report, where there had been a risk of a government defeat. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/U3ZTcYF3BH https://t.co/GIZLlT2a5I
  • Commodities Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.79% Gold: -0.04% Oil - US Crude: -0.38% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/2iQkw0sGZf
  • 🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence (JAN) Actual: 89.3 Expected: 89 Previous: 87.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-26
GBP/USD Remains Under Pressure as UK Economy Shrinks

GBP/USD Remains Under Pressure as UK Economy Shrinks

Nick Cawley, Strategist

UK Q1 GDP and Sterling Price Analysis:

  • UK Q1 GDP fell by 2% following a flat reading in Q4 2019.
  • Monthly GDP (March) fell by 5.8%
GBP Forecast
GBP Forecast
Recommended by Nick Cawley
Get Your Free GBP Forecast
Get My Guide

UK Q1 GDP – Better Than Expected But UK Economic Outlook Remains Dire

UK first quarter GDP contracted by 2.0%, official data from the ONS revealed today, the largest quarterly contraction since the 2008 global financial crisis. The economy fell by 1.6% compared with Q1 2019, while the monthly figure fell by 5.8%. All figures beat market estimates but the ONS warned that updates to the data ‘are likely to have larger than usual revisions’.

GBP/USD Remains Under Pressure as UK Economy Shrinks

Earlier today, figures released by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) showed a record fall in retail sales. Commenting on the release, Paul Martin, Partner, UK Head of Retail KPMG wrote, ‘With the nation firmly under lockdown throughout April, drastic sales declines were to be expected. Total sales fell a staggering 19.1% compared to last year – but that pain wasn’t felt equally’.

For all market moving events and data, see the newly improved DailyFX Calendar

GBP/USD price action post-UK GDP release was relatively muted with the pair trading just under 1.2300. Tuesday’s sell-off saw the April 21 low at 1.2274 tested and Sterling is likely to remain under pressure. GBP/USD is trading below all three moving averages, although it has yet to conclusively break the 50-dma, and continues to make a series of lower highs. If 1.2247 is broken, 1.2165 and 1.2095 come into view.

GBP/USD BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -6% 13% 6%
Weekly -30% 29% -2%
Learn How to Use Sentiment in Your Trading Strategy
Get My Guide

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart (September 2019 – May 13, 2020)

GBP/USD Remains Under Pressure as UK Economy Shrinks

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Sterling (GBP) – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES