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EUR/USD Price Vulnerable to Central Bank and Data Induced Volatility

EUR/USD Price Vulnerable to Central Bank and Data Induced Volatility

Nick Cawley, Strategist

EUR/USD Price, News and Analysis:

  • EUR/USD nears important zone of resistance.
  • Central bank meetings and GDP data will guide short-term direction.
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EUR/USD Moving Towards a Cluster of Resistance

The economic calendar is packed full of potentially market moving data in the days ahead which should decide the short term future for EUR/USD. Early Wednesday there are a raft of Euro-Zone confidence and sentiment indicators for April, all expected to fall further, ahead of US Q1 GDP which is expected to slump from on an annualized basis from 2.1% to -4.0%. Later Wednesday, the FOMC policy decision and press conference which is expected to give market participants a clearer picture of the US economy and what the Fed is, or will be, doing to counteract the economic damage caused by the coronavirus. Click on the bolded links to access our live coverage of each event.

On Thursday, Euro-Zone Q1 GDP is expected to fall to -3.5% q/q compared to a prior 0.1%, before the latest ECB rate decision and press conference. While the ECB is set to leave all rates unchanged, there is a growing feeling that the central bank needs to do more to help the economy and changes to QE, bond buying limits and eligible bonds may well be announced.

Add into the mix the latest weekly initial US jobless claims on Thursday and April US ISM manufacturing data on Friday and the economic calendar needs to be closely watched. For all market moving data and events please see the DailyFX calendar.

A weaker US dollar has helped EUR/USD push back above 1.0880 today, setting a new one-week high. The pair have also broken above Fibonacci 23.6% at 1.0839 and the 20-day moving average at 1.0870. EUR/USD needs to close, and open, above this short-dated moving average if positive moment is to continue. Above here a cluster of recent highs up to 1.0907 before 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.0965 and the 50-day ma at 1.0972. To the downside, a cluster of old lows before a re-test of 1.0726.

Forex Fundamental Analysis – Data and Central Banks

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart ( October 2019 – April 28, 2020)

chart showing eurusd price moves
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Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -12% -2% -7%
Weekly -13% -2% -7%
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What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.