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EUR/USD Price Outlook: Recent Pullback Looks Unconvincing

EUR/USD Price Outlook: Recent Pullback Looks Unconvincing

Nick Cawley, Strategist

EUR/USD Price, News and Analysis:

  • The recent series of higher lows is being broken.
  • 50-day moving average resistance stalls upside momentum.

EUR/USD Trending Lower as US Dollar Strength Comes Back Into Focus

A resurgent US dollar and ongoing worries over EU harmony in the face of the coronavirus has seen the pair move notably lower in one-way trade. The 20-dma and 50-dma are now active with the short-term moving average (1.0935) now broken while the medium-term dma (1.0982) provided solid resistance for a second day in a row. The daily chart shows the series of higher-lows being broken adding to the downside pressure on the pair. With prices seemingly capped just under 1.1000, lower prices are looking increasingly likely going forward.

The uptick in the value of the US dollar has put pressure on the pair while ongoing concerns that the EU is finding difficulty in establishing a common stance how to counter the economic damage caused by coronavirus is also contributing to EUR/USD weakness. Later today in the US, the monthly advanced retail sales data (March) will be released with expectations for a -8.0% print against last month’s -0.5%. Economic data for March is fully expected to be sharply lower than February’s readings as the impact of coronavirus is laid bare. On Thursday, the closely followed US initial jobless claims release is expected to show in excess of five million more people filing unemployment claims, after 6.6 million last week and nearly 6.9 million the week before. US dollar traders will be watching both releases for any deviation from market forecasts.

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EUR/USD Daily Price Chart (October 2019 – April 15, 2020)

eurusd price moving lower
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -12% -2% -7%
Weekly -15% 24% 6%
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What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.