News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Gold prices declined in the aftermath of bearish technical cues, but a key zone of support was reinforced. $XAUUSD volatility risk is elevated ahead of the #Elections2020. Get your #metals update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/gWOxdqk8OL https://t.co/gBMgF0YNjH
  • USD awakens, placing GBP/USD on the backfoot, while EUR/GBP cracks 0.90. Get your #currencies update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/fndMQJLul8 https://t.co/elz5gNAKrB
  • What are some factors impacting Euro’s forecast this quarter? Get your free forecast here: https://t.co/kpBYVz31Bd https://t.co/7EzMPg9Kqg
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/DjMdgL5x19
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here: https://t.co/NpC1D8y4Aa https://t.co/6sqqRfTri2
  • The British Pound, Australian Dollar and US Dollar may all experienced heightened periods of volatility as geopolitical risks in North America, Asia and Europe rattle global financial markets. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/0EFToM5Y8I https://t.co/5gsZQfX6aG
  • The New Zealand Dollar may continue to outperform the haven-associated US Dollar as price breaks above key long-term resistance. Get your $NZDUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/D1DxtDkJXd https://t.co/DwkK9F9FCJ
  • #Gold prices declined following bearish technical cues, but a key zone of support was reinforced over the past 48 hours. #XAUUSD volatility risk is elevated ahead of the #USElection - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2020/10/30/Gold-Technical-Forecast-Election-Raises-Volatility-Risk-But-Support-Holds.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/5hgGEojvIE
  • What is the US Dollar outlook based on retail positioning ahead of the November 3rd presidential election? EUR/USD may fall as AUD/USD rises. Which way could USD/CAD capitulate? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/BVoIcR9anM https://t.co/Frmn9y6yKJ
  • US #COVID19 cases hit a record for a second consecutive day -BBG
Australian Dollar (AUD) Outlook: AUD/USD, AUD/CAD, AUD/NZD

Australian Dollar (AUD) Outlook: AUD/USD, AUD/CAD, AUD/NZD

2020-01-16 22:30:00
Peter Hanks, Analyst
Share:

Australian (AUD) Dollar Forecast:

Australian Dollar Outlook

The announcement and subsequent signing of the phase one agreement between the United States and China has helped bolster risk assets in recent weeks as the S&P 500 has enjoyed strength to begin 2020. That being said, AUD pairs have been less enthusiastic than their equity counterparts as various pairs struggle to maintain gains in the new year. Without a clear bullish fundamental driver moving forward, can AUD press higher or will the remnants of Aussie strength fade as the euphoria around the trade deal wanes?

AUD/USD Forecast

Against the US Dollar, the Australian Dollar recently employed the 200-day simple moving average for support as tensions in the Middle East sparked a brief stint of risk aversion. Now, however, risk appetite has returned – as evidenced by new highs in the S&P 500 - and AUD/USD has rebounded but overhead resistance kept price in check on Thursday.

AUD/USD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (April 2018 – January 2020) (Chart 1)

audusd price chart aud

A long upper wick on the daily chart highlights a lack of bullish conviction, which could be concerning given the resistance to come. If the pair is unable to establish a new high above the January 1, 2020 level, it would break the series of higher-highs and higher-lows which would compound the evidence of waning bullish conviction. Thus, in pursuit of a medium-term continuation higher, look for AUD/USD to trade above 0.7018. In the meantime, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Peter Hanks
Forex for Beginners
Get My Guide

AUD/CAD Forecast

Shifting focus to AUD/CAD, the nearby 200-day simple moving average may keep a lid on bullish momentum in the shorter-term. Unlike AUD/USD, AUD/CAD has been unable to pierce the descending trendline which leaves the pair with a more difficult road ahead if it is to press higher. With that in mind, AUD/CAD is an attractive opportunity for strategies looking to capitalize on Australian Dollar weakness over the medium to longer term.

AUD/CAD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (April 2018 – January 2020) (Chart 2)

audcad price chart

AUD/NZD Forecast

Conversely, AUD/NZD may provide bullish opportunities across a shorter timeframe. As I noted last week, longer-term Aussie weakness is likely versus the New Zealand Dollar, but currently rests near support and is a safe distance from more-robust technical resistance. Therefore, AUD/NZD may offer a better risk-reward profile, from a bullish perspective, than the other two pairs discussed.

AUD/NZD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (March 2018 – January 2020) (Chart 3)

audnzd price chart aud

Still, Aussie strength may require a catalyst outside of simple risk appetite given the currency’s indifference to the risk-rally on Thursday. Either way, the Australian Dollar will have its work cut out for it if it is to continue higher in the days and weeks to come as the fundamental landscape behind it falls under pressure.

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more:How to Invest During a Recession: Investments & Strategy

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES