We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @MWMozee: Also, US reports 5th case of #coronavirus US stock futures: $COMP falls 1.3% $DJIA down 0.8% $SPX drops 0.9% Hong Kong's…
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Find out about the recent history of ISM data, how to track it, and how to trade its release here: https://t.co/MZtBh88nOv https://t.co/RMxpXvpa61
  • RT @arwaib: BREAKING: Jets flying over Baghdad right now after reports of expected #US response to earlier rocket attacks that slammed in e…
  • RT @ForexLive: China confirmed #coronavirus cases: Jan 17: 41 Jan 19: 62 Jan 20: 201 Jan 21: 291 Jan 22: 440 Jan…
  • #JPY, #USD #gold up with bond futures, #crudeoil down with S&P 500 stock futures as #coronarovirus fears grip markets at weekly trading open. Backstory here - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2020/01/26/Japanese-Yen-US-Dollar-May-Gap-Higher-as-Week-Starts-on-Virus-Fears.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr (via @ddubrovskyFX) https://t.co/bq96FHKBNs
  • RT @conorsen: @selling_theta @LJKawa https://t.co/vVfmLgHd9b
  • RT @iv_technicals: So you thought it was all contained, right?! Mhm. Cool stuff. https://t.co/PShm600IPS
  • RT @globaltimesnews: #Hubei Province reported 371 new cases of #WuhanCoronavirus and 24 new deaths on Jan 26 local time; total infection ca…
  • What is market volatility and what does a market event volatility look like? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/QpD4VP4vDc
  • The last time the $USDJPY suffered this large of a bearish gap in a bearish slide (this one still nascent), was back in May: https://t.co/hTxfyVFiox
US CPI Prints at 2.1% vs Expectation of 2.0, Core at 2.3%

US CPI Prints at 2.1% vs Expectation of 2.0, Core at 2.3%

2019-12-11 13:38:00
James Stanley, Currency Strategist

US CPI Talking Points:

  • This morning brought the release of November US CPI data.
  • Headline CPI came in at 2.1% while Core CPI printed at 2.3%.
  • Focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve and their December rate decision and, perhaps more specifically, the dot plot matrix and the accompanying press conference as there’s minimal expectation for any actual moves at today’s meeting.
USD Forecast
USD Forecast
Recommended by James Stanley
Get Your Free USD Forecast
Get My Guide

It’s a big day for the US Dollar as this morning brought the release of CPI data for the month of November with the December FOMC rate decision looming for later today at 2PM ET. And while the primary focal point is the Federal Reserve, the recent stance out of the bank has put a more intense focus on the data in the effort of gauging when or which direction that next move may be. Case in point, the Friday release of Non-Farm Payrolls brought a strong counter-trend move into the equation after a blowout print. Much of that move has already dissipated, however, as the final FOMC rate decision of 2019 nears.

For this morning’s data, inflation remains a point-of-interest in the effort of gauging that next move out of the FOMC. While the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is PCE, trends and themes can also be seen in the Consumer Price Index, particularly around the recent shift in policy from the Federal Reserve.

This morning’s headline CPI print came out at 2.1 versus an expectation of 2.0%, and above last month’s print of 1.8%.

US Headline CPI Since August of 2018

us cpi since august 2018

Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, has remained incredibly consistent through this recent shift at the Fed, printing above 2% for now the 21st consecutive month.

US Core CPI Since August 2018


All Eyes on the Fed

In the opening days of Q4 last year, Jerome Powell said that he thought the neutral rate was ‘a long way’ off, widely-inferred to mean that the bank had plans for more rate hikes coming into 2019. At the time, headline CPI was well-above the Fed’s 2% target, printing at 2.3% in September of last year and 2.5% in October. But this headline CPI number began to deteriorate through Q4, finishing the year at 1.9% and continuing to fall through early 2019, just as the Fed was shifting into a more dovish posture.

But, at that most recent rate cut, Jerome Powell remarked that the bank won’t be looking to hike rates unless there was a ‘really significant’ rise in inflation; and given this morning’s data, that’s not a scenario of concern at the present moment.

Focus now shifts to the Fed.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.