0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Trump says considering term-limited suspension of payroll tax - BBG
  • RT @FxWestwater: #SP500 Outlook: Options Traders Positioned for New All-Time High w/ @RichDvorakFX via @DailyFX $SPX https://t.co/8WkV…
  • Fed's Mester says there is not much support for going negative on rates - BBG
  • The Pound Sterling could continue its bullish trend if the Bank of England defers NIRP remarks. Get your $GBP market update from @RichDvorakFX here:https://t.co/0qVLWRjqIm https://t.co/IbRF1eBx1w
  • 🇧🇷 Interest Rate Decision Actual: 2% Expected: 2% Previous: 2.25% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-05
  • White House Chief of Staff Meadows says talks done for the day on stimulus, no consensus reached- BBG
  • Fed's Mester: - More stimulus can be available from forward guidance and bond buying - Downside risks increased from recent virus uptick - BBG
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.54% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.52% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.43% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.38% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.32% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/gewmUIxsEK
  • The USD is approaching the 92.50 zone, which helped to hold the lows last week. Support or a reversal here puts AUD/USD in an interesting spot for reversals. Get your $USD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/mDGCXV26Q7 https://t.co/eAL5wzC3wi
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Mester Speech due at 21:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-05
Crude Oil Volatility Soars amid OPEC Risk, Investors Bet on Oil Price Breakout

Crude Oil Volatility Soars amid OPEC Risk, Investors Bet on Oil Price Breakout

2019-12-05 09:15:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:

Crude Oil Analysis & News

  • Crude Oil Volatility Surges Amid OPEC Meeting
  • Investors Betting on Oil Breakout

Crude Oil Volatility Surges Amid OPEC Meeting

Crude oil volatility is notably elevated as OPEC ministers convene for their bi-annual meeting. Consensus is for the cartel to stick with its current production quota of 1.2mbpd with an extension to June (OPEC cuts set to expire in March 2020). However, given that non-OPEC production looks set to outstrip global oil demand throughout the first half of 2020, risking a supply glut. There has been increased calls for OPEC to opt for deeper production cuts with a touted figure of 400kbpd in order to balance the market. In turn, this has meant that the bar is relatively low for OPEC to disappoint, meaning that by failing to deliver deeper cuts would likely place pressure on oil prices with Brent crude at risk of falling below $60 in the near term. As it stands, according to the CME volatility calculator, Brent crude volatility is at 57%, which signals an implied move of $3.60.

Crude Oil Volatility Soars amid OPEC Risk, Investors Bet on Oil Price Breakout

OPEC Schedule

Dec 5th:

- JMMC at 1000GMT

- OPEC Meeting at 1400GMT

Dec 6th:

- OPEC+ Meeting at 1000GMT

Investors Piling into Oil Ahead of OPEC Meeting

Speculative positioning data via the CFTC highlighted that investors had been piling into Brent crude in recent weeks ahead of the OPEC meeting, in which they now hold the largest bullish bet in crude oil since the end of May. As such, while investors may be betting on a bullish breakout in oil prices, this however, further emphasises that an uninspiring OPEC meeting may spark a notable drop in crude oil as long positions are liquidated.

Crude Oil Volatility Soars amid OPEC Risk, Investors Bet on Oil Price Breakout

Crude Oil Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Jul 2019 – Dec 2019)

Crude Oil Volatility Soars amid OPEC Risk, Investors Bet on Oil Price Breakout

Support: $61.00 (Rising Trendline), $59.60 (23.6% Fib of 7103-5608 drop)

Resistance: $63.60 (November peak), $65.32 (61.8% Fib)

Brent Crude Correlation with FX

Crude Oil Volatility Soars amid OPEC Risk, Investors Bet on Oil Price Breakout

*3-month correlation with Brent crude oil

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.