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EUR/USD Forecast - Setting Up a Range Break Ahead of US ISM Data Release

EUR/USD Forecast - Setting Up a Range Break Ahead of US ISM Data Release

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


What's on this page

EUR/USD Price Forecast, Analysis and Chart:

  • EUR/USD eyeing one-month high.
  • Will ISM services confirm that the US economy is slowing down?

Brand New Q4 2019 USD and EUR Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities

The Euro’s recent move higher against the US dollar continues and the daily chart is now turning positive after weeks of flat-to-negative sentiment. Weakness in the US dollar is helping to underpin the move higher, especially after Monday’s US manufacturing ISM release that missed expectations and remained in contraction territory. If today’s US non-manufacturing/services ISM – released at 15:00 GMT - is equally as downbeat, EUR/USD should push through recent resistance levels and back towards the double-top made in late-October and early-November. At the back end of the week, the monthly US Labour report will also need to be watched carefully on the back of the ISM manufacturing release.

The daily EUR/USD chart shows the pair just below the November 21 high at 1.1097 with little resistance after that until the 200-dma at 1.1138. A confirmed break above here will bring the recent highs between 1.1175 and 1.1180 into play and will break the series of lower highs that have dominated the chart since the start of the year. To the downside, support sits between 1.0980 and 1.1000 before 1.0926 and 1.0879.

For all the major economic data releases and the updated events schedule, see the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

The IG Client Sentiment shows that traders are 52% net-short EUR/USD. Daily and weekly positional changes give us a mixed outlook for the pair.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart (April – December 4, 2019)

eurusd price chart showing euro rallying against the US dollar

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on the Euro and the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.