We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The $AUD erased half of November’s down move in a mere two days but the dominant trend bias continues to favor weakness ahead. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/ShYksfNXyS https://t.co/OVhyNgLRn5
  • We were almost there, but the $SPX fell short of a >1.0% daily change. That raises the tally to 39 consecutive trading days without a climb or fall of even a moderate measure https://t.co/ibt82dBGmh
  • En español: El oro tropieza y se precipita en caída libre. ¿Qué explica las pérdidas del metal dorado y la alta volatilidad en los mercados financieros? #XAUUSD #trading $gold https://t.co/Hdsd0z1qih https://t.co/WKnGaABVS8
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.35% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.17% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.14% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.30% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.38% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.59% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/lrSRyCHLjw
  • Martin Guzman named as Argentina's new Minister of Economy $USDARS
  • YouGov poll finds 52% for Johnson winning debate vs 48% for Corbyn $GBPUSD
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.15% Gold: -1.07% Silver: -2.28% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/MUWxfLEsGn
  • $GBPJPY: Any close above 143.19 could embolden more market’s participants to push towards the vicinity of 144.80-94. Get your technical analysis from @malkudsi here:https://t.co/eYpmPx1pKg https://t.co/7g2rhlfzaB
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.09%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 78.67%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/ZLq5jhfPrP
  • UK PM Johnson says failure to exit the EU has cause much bitterness $GBPUSD
EURUSD Nearing a Break as Price Coils Tighter Ahead of CB Meetings

EURUSD Nearing a Break as Price Coils Tighter Ahead of CB Meetings

2019-07-18 11:00:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
Share:

EURUSD Price, Chart and Analysis:

  • Fed and ECB monetary policy turning dovish.
  • EURUSD triangular breakout on the cards in the coming days.

Q3 2019 EUR Forecast and USD Top Trading Opportunities and Forecasts

Keep up to date with all key economic data and event releases via the DailyFX Economic Calendar

EURUSD price action is currently setting up for a triangular breakout ahead of two important central bank meetings this month. The triangle’s vertex, defined by higher lows and lower highs, falls due around the time of the next ECB meeting on July 25 where the central bank is expected to outline a potential 10 basis point cut to the deposit rate to -0.5%. ECB President Mario Draghi may also prepare the market for another round of quantitative easing (bond buying), especially if economic data remains weak.

In the US, the FOMC meeting on July 31 is fully expected to result in a 0.25% interest rate cut as Fed chair Jerome Powell looks to head off any economic slowdown. While interest rate cuts in the US have now been priced in over the last 2-3 months, the realization that the ECB has changed course and now needs to provide fresh monetary stimulus has weakened the Euro and may well weaken it further in the coming months.

On the daily chart the triangular set-up over the last few is clear. The floor is currently a few pips under 1.1200, while the spot price is currently 1.1230 and falling. A break and close below 1.1182 would negate the short-term series of higher lows from June 18, while a bearish chart breakdown will need a close below the May 23 low at 1.1107.

ECB to Continue QE as Fed Cements its Case for an Interest Rate Cut

EURUSD Daily Price Chart (November 2018 – July 18, 2019)

EURUSD Nearing a Break as Price Coils Tighter Ahead of CB Meetings

Retail traders are 66.6% (!!!) net-long EURUSD according to the latest IG Client Sentiment Data, a bullish contrarian indicator. However recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a stronger bearish contrarian trading bias.

We run several Trader Sentiment Webinars every week explaining how to use IG client sentiment data and positioning when looking attrade set-ups. Access the DailyFX Webinar Calendar to get all the times and links for a wide range of webinars.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.