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USD Price Analysis and Talking Points:

  • USD Bulls Look to Return to YTD Highs
  • Fed Minutes to Reiterate Patience, Eyes on Inflation Views

See our quarterly USD forecast to learn what will drive prices throughout Q1!

USD Eyes FOMC Minutes

Today’s focus will be on the FOMC minutes from the April monetary policy meeting. As a reminder, the FOMC had cut the IOER by 5bps as expected, while Fed Chair Powell noted that soft inflation had been due to “transitory” factors. Potentially, this was used as a way to cool expectations of a near-term interest rate cut from the Fed. As such, focus will be on the committees view regarding inflation, alongside the trade war tensions. In reaction Chair Powell’s statement on inflation, the USD had edged higher, alongside US bond yields. As such, given how dovish rates markets are priced in for the Fed, risks are for a similar reaction as the Fed look to signal that there is little arguments for a rate cut, which in turn could see a similar reaction with the greenback edging towards YTD highs (97.84).

USD Bulls Eye Return to 2019 Highs on FOMC Minutes

Source: Refinitiv, DailyFX (Fed Rate Expectations)

US Dollar Index Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Dec 18 – May 19)

USD Bulls Eye Return to 2019 Highs on FOMC Minutes


--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

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Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX