We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Indian Rupee soared after the Reserve Bank of India surprised with a rate hold. USD/INR may climb as support reinstates the uptrend ahead of Indian CPI and global trade tensions #Rupee $USDINR #RBI - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2019/12/06/US-Dollar-Outlook-USDINR-Rate-May-Gain-After-RBI-Shocked-Markets.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/dFKMQgBVVH
  • EUR/GBP has plummeted to a 19-month low while GBP/CAD and GBP/USD are re-testing critical resistance channels. $GBPAUD has reached a three-year high but will upside momentum last? Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/TqzxCRSnjN https://t.co/cT3qQUTvvr
  • Asia Pacific Equities Update: Nikkei 225 (+0.31%), Shanghai Composite (+0.02%), ASX 200 (+0.25%), KOSPI (+0.90%) [delayed]
  • The $USD appears to be stalling against the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Peso, but technical analysis may still favor USD strength. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/AZp98MoXKo https://t.co/sRI9CDkTAQ
  • British Pound Outlook Bullish Ahead of BBC Debate, UK Election- https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2019/12/06/British-Pound-Outlook-Bullish-Ahead-of-BBC-Debate-UK-Election.html
  • DAX off its recent highs, but only looking like a pullback so far. Get your technical analysis here: https://t.co/PztESSrAUK https://t.co/5X5qb3rGYa
  • The #Euro recoiled from resistance near the 1.11 figure yet again, with signs of ebbing upside momentum warning that a downturn is brewing ahead. Get your $EURUSD technical analysis from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/ynrkWTFayR https://t.co/2N7CB3UOYi
  • So far this week, #NZD has been the best-performing major versus #USD with +2.1% spot-returns while #KRW has been the worst with -0.77%
  • My video for the final trading day of the week: '#Dollar Index Sits on 19 Month Channel Floor as #NFPs Arrive' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/12/06/Dollar-Index-Sits-on-19-Month-Channel-Floor-as-NFPs-Arrives.html?CHID=9&QPID=917719 https://t.co/ccL4PMDKA8
  • *I deleted all of my social media roughly 2 years ago and have not regretted it ever since. I (obviously) use Twitter, but exclusively for work purposes/trading/market news/analysis and intend on doing the same with the new Instagram account.
AUDUSD Eyes 4-Month Low on Trade War Escalation & RBA Cut Bets

AUDUSD Eyes 4-Month Low on Trade War Escalation & RBA Cut Bets

2019-05-13 15:31:00
Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst
Share:

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – TALKING POINTS

  • The Australian Dollar trades near its lowest level in over 4 months after headlines dropped that the US China Trade War will escalate
  • Odds of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could increase further depending on Thursday’s employment report
  • AUDUSD retail traders remain net long according to client positioning data
  • For in-depth analysis, download the free DailyFX Q2 Forecasts on a range of currencies

The Australian Dollar remains on its back foot today with the currency extending its recent string of losses. In fact, spot AUDUSD is currently trading at an intraday low of 0.6954 which is its lowest price since the aftermath of the Japanese Yen flash crash.

AUDUSD came under renewed pressure after headlines crossed the wires that China will escalate the Sino-American trade war with raising tariffs on $60 billion of US imports. The retaliation by the Chinese is rumored to also include halting the purchase of US agricultural goods, reducing Boeing aircraft orders and restricting US services trade with China.

AUDUSD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (DECEMBER 27, 2018 TO MAY 13, 2019)

AUDUSD Price Chart

The Australian Dollar has been adversely impacted by the ongoing trade tension between the two largest economies in the world due to Australia’s heavy reliance on exports to China. Consequently, weakness in Chinese economic growth has been closely mirrored by the Aussie.

Concerns over the latest trade friction between the US and China are accumulating quickly and weighing negatively on risk assets due to the market’s dampened expectation of global economic growth rebounding higher later this year.

This could be contributing to the increase in RBA rate cut bets according to overnight indexed swaps pricing which have risen from 21 percent last week to 34 percent today for the June meeting. Odds of a rate cut could rise further and exacerbate recent weakness in AUDUSD if Thursday’s looming Australian jobs report disappoints.

AUDUSD TRADER SENTIMENT PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (NOVEMBER 12, 2018 TO MAY 13, 2019)

Australian Dollar Price Chart vs Trader Sentiment Client Positioning

Despite the recent string of losses in spot AUDUSD, majority of retail currency traders remain bullish on the Aussie according to IG client positioning data. The AUDUSD trader sentiment reading shows that 74.9 percent of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.98 to 1. Although, the number of traders net-long is 14.5 percent lower than Friday and 13.9 percent lower than last week. Interpreting crowd sentiment with a contrarian lens, this data could indicate that that spot AUDUSD may continue to fall.

- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX

- Follow @RichDvorakFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.