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EURUSD Price Edges Higher, Shrugs Off Weak Inflation, PMI Prints

EURUSD Price Edges Higher, Shrugs Off Weak Inflation, PMI Prints

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


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EURUSD Price and Analysis, Euro-Zone Inflation and PMIs:

  • EURUSD nudging out of oversold territory.
  • German manufacturing PMI confirmed even lower.
  • Euro-Zone inflation misses expectations.

Q1 2019 EUR Forecast and USD Top Trading Opportunities

Another set of weak PMI prints in the Euro-Zone with the March final releases missing already weak preliminary results. Ongoing weakness in the manufacturing space has weighed on the single currency in the past few weeks and today’s results will only add to thoughts that the Euro-Zone may need a helping hand from the ECB to re-start the economy. Wednesday’s final services and composite PMIs will now be watched closely for further signs of economic weakness. In addition, the latest inflation numbers for the single-block also missed target with core CPI y/y falling to 0.8% from 1.0% in February while headline CPI nudged 0.1% lower to 1.4% y/y.

Euro Weekly Technical Forecast: Breakdown Potential for Q2.

The bad economic news did little to dampen the Euro in early turnover with EURUSD posting small gains, helped in part by a slightly weaker US dollar. The greenback is currently finding further upside difficult, especially after recent economic releases, and looks likely to drift lower in an effort to find short-term support. EURUSD has found support around 1.1200 and may take a run at the 1.1260-1.1280 area. The pair is edging out of oversold territory and while the chart remains bearish in the longer-term, a re-test of 1.1300 cannot be discounted.

US Dollar Weekly Technical Outlook: USD Starting to Look Exhausted.

EURUSD Daily Price Chart (July 2018 – April 1, 2019)

Retail traders are 67.4% net-long EURUSD according to the latest IG Client Sentiment Data, a bearish contrarian indicator. Recent substantial changes in daily and weekly sentiment, increasing retail traders net-long positions, give us a stronger bearish trading bias for EURUSD.

We run a number of Trader Sentiment webinars every week explaining how to use client sentiment data and positioning when looking at a trade set-up. Access the DailyFX Webinar Calendar to get all the times and links for a wide range of webinars and topics.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.