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Sterling (GBP) Needs More Than Brexit Can-Kicking to Push Higher

Sterling (GBP) Needs More Than Brexit Can-Kicking to Push Higher

2019-03-22 10:25:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist
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GBP Price, Chart and Brexit Latest

  • Article 50 extension given by EU, will it make any difference?
  • Sterling off its lows but charts are not as positive as before.
  • Client sentiment is bearish.

Q1 2019 GBP Forecast and USD Top Trading Opportunities

Brexit Latest – Article 50 Extension is Just More Can-Kicking

The EU last night said that Article 50 could be extended by two weeks to April 12 if the Withdrawal Bill is not voted through next week, giving PM May a short stay of execution as MPs on both sides of the House line up against her. If the bill is not voted through by April 12, the UK will have to decide whether to go for a long extension or leave the EU. If the bill is voted through, the UK will leave the EU on May 22.

While the extension will give PM May more time to try and get her contentious bill through the House, her recent words and actions have riled MPs on both sides with media reports that the patience of some senior members within the Conservative Party is wearing thin. The next three weeks will be volatile and noisy.

Sterling endured a roller-coaster session Thursday afternoon, hitting a low of a couple of pips above 1.3000 against the US dollar as news and rumors swirled during the EU meeting. Worryingly for GBPUSD bulls, the pair broke below the recent uptrend channel around 1.3040 and this may now erode positive sentiment in cable. A close below that level would remove the positive bias in GBPUSD seen since the start of 2019.

DailyFX Economic Calendar.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (June 2018 – March 22, 2019)

Sterling (GBP) Needs More Than Brexit Can-Kicking to Push Higher

Retail traders are 63.2% net-long GBPUSD according to the latest IG Client Sentiment Data, a bearish contrarian indicator. Recent changes in daily and weekly sentiment – shorts are 26.8% lower than yesterday and 29.9% lower than last week - however currently suggest a stronger bearish GBPUSD bias.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Sterling – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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