News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:💶 Retail Sales YoY (JAN) due at 10:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -1.2% Previous: 0.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-04
  • Heads Up:💶 Unemployment Rate (JAN) due at 10:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 8.3% Previous: 8.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-04
  • 🇬🇧 Construction PMI (FEB) Actual: 53.3 Expected: 51 Previous: 49.2 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-04
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZBx7g https://t.co/crXp4Tnxku
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Construction PMI (FEB) due at 09:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 51 Previous: 49.2 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-04
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.76%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 65.31%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/tF7NDRkMxh
  • Commodities Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.56% Gold: 0.32% Silver: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/oQYFEnQWXw
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/5Rb6Zace9V
  • Forex Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.34% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.21% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.08% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.06% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.12% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.15% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Ksc3KraqP3
  • Indices Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.12% US 500: -0.20% France 40: -0.48% FTSE 100: -0.50% Germany 30: -0.54% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/u0DuzvS8In
Norges Bank: The Only G10 Central Bank to Raise Interest Rates

Norges Bank: The Only G10 Central Bank to Raise Interest Rates

Justin McQueen, Analyst

NOK Price Analysis and Talking Points:

  • Norges Bank: Only G10 Central Bank to Hike
  • Focus on the Rate Path

See our quarterly FX forecast to learn what will drive prices throughout Q1.

Norges Bank: Only G10 Central Bank to Hike in Q1

The Norges Bank are expected to raise interest rates at the March 21st meeting by 25bps to 1%. Since, the January meeting, data has largely been in line with the central bank’s economic projections. Alongside this, a weaker than expected NOK with oil prices pushing to 4-month highs (Norwegian break-even oil price at $30/bbl) and inflation above forecasts (CPI-ATE 2.6% vs. NB forecast of 2%), not only makes a rate hike at the upcoming meeting a done deal, but also advocates the case for a faster than expected rate path.

Focus on the Rate Path

However, while Norway has been somewhat insulated from the weakness seen in the Eurozone and China, the decline in rate expectations abroad (most notably the Fed and ECB) could see the Norges Bank not only reiterate their gradual approach to rate rises, but also lower their rate path in the longer run as opposed to the near-term where two hikes for 2019 is still expected.

Consequently, eyes will be on the rate path guidance from the Norges Bank, which could state that “The boards current assessment of the outlook and balance of risks suggest that the key policy rate will most likely be raised after summer 2019”, which in turn would make September a live meeting (Guidance similar to last year).

EURNOK Chart: Daily Time Frame (Sep 2018 – Mar 2019)

Norges Bank: The Only G10 Central Bank to Raise Interest Rates

A signal from the Norges Bank that they will continue raising interest rates, leaving a Q3 hike on the table could see support at 9.65 break, extending a move towards 9.55. Given the robust state of the Norwegian economy relative to the Eurozone and with oil prices hovering around 4-month highs a bearish EURNOK outlook looks promising.

FXTRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES