News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Dollar seems to be back on the offensive against its major counterparts, pressuring EUR/USD and NZD/USD lower as USD/JPY consolidates. USD/CHF surges past key resistance. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • Chinese estates' Evergrande loss assumes all shares sold -BBG #Evergrande
  • RT @FxWestwater: Australian Dollar Fights FOMC-Charged US Dollar After Upbeat PMI Data Link: $AUDUSD…
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Foreign Bond Investment (18/SEP) due at 23:50 GMT (15min)
  • Gold prices gain as potential systemic risks out of China's Evergrande Group roil broader markets. Meanwhile, iron ore is ticking higher after a big drop on Monday as China steps up steelmaking curbs. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • #ASEAN based #USD index continues to extend the bounce off September lows post #FOMC This follows a test of the 100-day SMA as well as a rising trendline from June Eyes on the 38.2% Fib extension before potentially retesting the July/August highs
  • 🇦🇺 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash (SEP) Actual: 57.3 Previous: 52
  • 🇦🇺 Markit Services PMI Flash (SEP) Actual: 44.9 Previous: 42.9
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash (SEP) due at 23:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 52
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Markit Services PMI Flash (SEP) due at 23:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 42.9
Norges Bank: The Only G10 Central Bank to Raise Interest Rates

Norges Bank: The Only G10 Central Bank to Raise Interest Rates

Justin McQueen, Strategist

NOK Price Analysis and Talking Points:

  • Norges Bank: Only G10 Central Bank to Hike
  • Focus on the Rate Path

See our quarterly FX forecast to learn what will drive prices throughout Q1.

Norges Bank: Only G10 Central Bank to Hike in Q1

The Norges Bank are expected to raise interest rates at the March 21st meeting by 25bps to 1%. Since, the January meeting, data has largely been in line with the central bank’s economic projections. Alongside this, a weaker than expected NOK with oil prices pushing to 4-month highs (Norwegian break-even oil price at $30/bbl) and inflation above forecasts (CPI-ATE 2.6% vs. NB forecast of 2%), not only makes a rate hike at the upcoming meeting a done deal, but also advocates the case for a faster than expected rate path.

Focus on the Rate Path

However, while Norway has been somewhat insulated from the weakness seen in the Eurozone and China, the decline in rate expectations abroad (most notably the Fed and ECB) could see the Norges Bank not only reiterate their gradual approach to rate rises, but also lower their rate path in the longer run as opposed to the near-term where two hikes for 2019 is still expected.

Consequently, eyes will be on the rate path guidance from the Norges Bank, which could state that “The boards current assessment of the outlook and balance of risks suggest that the key policy rate will most likely be raised after summer 2019”, which in turn would make September a live meeting (Guidance similar to last year).

EURNOK Chart: Daily Time Frame (Sep 2018 – Mar 2019)

Norges Bank: The Only G10 Central Bank to Raise Interest Rates

A signal from the Norges Bank that they will continue raising interest rates, leaving a Q3 hike on the table could see support at 9.65 break, extending a move towards 9.55. Given the robust state of the Norwegian economy relative to the Eurozone and with oil prices hovering around 4-month highs a bearish EURNOK outlook looks promising.


--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.