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USD Wobbles on Technical Support Ahead of Q4 GDP

USD Wobbles on Technical Support Ahead of Q4 GDP

Nick Cawley, Strategist

USD Price, Chart and US Q4 GDP Analysis:

  • US dollar basket sitting on the 200-day moving average.
  • Delayed US Q4 GDP may spur the next move.

Q1 2019 USD Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities

The US dollar basket (DXY) is fading gently lower in European hours ahead of the, delayed, first look at US Q4 GDP at 13.30 GMT. Market expectations are pointing to annualized Q/Q growth slipping to 2.2%, down from 3.4%, although recent data and Fed speak has warned of a slowdown in the US economy. Before the figures are released, Fed Vice Chair Clarida speaks at 13:00 GMT while later during the session we hear from Fed members Bostic (13:50 GMT), Harker (16:00 GMT) and Kaplan (18:00 GMT).

DailyFX analyst David Song will be covering the US Q4 GDP release from 13:15 GMT.

The US dollar basket is currently sitting on the 200-day moving average around 95.40 and is looking for its next move. Support is situated around the two January lows between 94.50 and 94.60 beofre 38.2% Fibonacci retracement comes in at 94.00. To the upside, the 20-day moving average at 96.08 guards the mid-February multi-week high at 96.85. The RSI indicator continues to move lower and is touching a multi-week low.

USD Basket (DXY) Daily Price Chart (May 2018 – February 28, 2019)

Retail traders can access the latest IG Client Sentiment Data for a range of currencies and commodities. The data shows how retail positioning, and daily and weekly changes, can help when looking for a trade set-up.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on the US dollar – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.com or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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