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USD Rebound Likely After Two Days of Falls, US-China Trade War in Focus

USD Rebound Likely After Two Days of Falls, US-China Trade War in Focus

2018-05-22 08:00:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst
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USD talking points:

- Optimism that the US and China have reached at least a temporary ceasefire in their trade war should boost USD.

- Higher oil prices will likely lift US inflation and keep the chances high of several more US interest rate increases this year.

Check out the IG Client Sentiment data to help you trade profitably.

And for a longer-term outlook take a look at our Q2 forecast for USD.

US-China trade war fears recede

The chances of a US-China trade war appear to be receding further after a Reuters report suggesting that Washington and Beijing are nearing a deal that would remove an existing US order banning American companies from supplying Chinese telecoms equipment maker ZTE.

That should prompt a USD recovery after falls yesterday and early today, particularly as the problems in Venezuela have led to an increase in oil prices. If sustained, those higher prices could lift US inflation and keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise US interest rates around three times this year.

USD Basket Price Chart, Five-Minute Timeframe (May 21-22, 2018)

Latest US Dollar basket price chart shoing impact of US-China trade war.

Chart by IG

Against the Japanese Yen, the US Dollar remains not far from the highs reached in late January while EURUSD is still close to levels last seen in December. However, the Euro in particular will likely remain under pressure because of concerns about the political situation in Italy.

Meanwhile GBPUSD could well lose more ground as Brexit uncertainties continue to weigh on the Pound.

You can read more of our trade wars coverage here:

The Impact of Tariffs and Trade Wars on the US Economy and the Dollar

A War to Trade More, Not Less - What’s Behind US-China Tariffs

Why International Trade News Matters for Foreign Exchange Rates

US China Trade War & a Brief History of Trade Wars – 1900 until Present

Trade War: No Respite for EURUSD as US-China Trade Talks Resume

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--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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