News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • DAX 30 struggles to clear key resistance as rising wedge pattern starts to form. Get your #DAX market update from @HathornSabin here:https://t.co/1YbfDlB0Ag https://t.co/lmMuxE4Uk6
  • EU and UK may reach deal by the end of the week - BBC political editor $GBP #Brexit
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.59% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.58% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.36% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.05% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.08% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.40% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/nC1lCRvA7M
  • US House clears China delisting bill, sending it forward to President Trump - BBG $USD
  • 🇳🇿 Building Permits MoM (OCT) Actual: 8.8% Previous: 3.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-12-02
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Markit Services PMI Final (NOV) due at 22:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 53.7 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-12-02
  • $AUDUSD climbing to its strongest levels since 2018 on positive vaccine news and renewed US fiscal stimulus hopes Next key levels of resistance falling at the July 2018 high (0.7484) and the psychologically imposing 0.7500 mark. $AUD https://t.co/mluudxfVBv
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.90% Silver: 0.38% Oil - US Crude: -0.45% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/KWAG9XnWYR
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 94.46%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 72.72%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/sRpA2Wewya
  • Heads Up:🇳🇿 Building Permits MoM (OCT) due at 21:45 GMT (15min) Previous: 3.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-12-02
Asia AM Digest: US/China Trade News Lifts AUD, JPY Eyes Tokyo Open

Asia AM Digest: US/China Trade News Lifts AUD, JPY Eyes Tokyo Open

2018-05-20 23:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
Share:

Current Market Developments – Anti-Risk JPY Lower, Sentiment-Linked AUD Up

The beginning of this week’s session was met with an improvement in sentiment, causing some gaps across the FX majors spectrum. On Saturday, news from the White House crossed the wires saying that China will “significantly increase purchases” of US goods and services. The following day, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced that they are putting the trade war and Chinese tariffs on hold.

Additional Notes from the White House:

  • Both sides agreed on meaningful increases in US agriculture and energy exports
  • US will send a team to China to work out details
  • US and China agreed to encourage two-way investment to create a level playing field for competition

Additional Comments from Steven Mnuchin:

  • Trump can always decide to go ahead with tariffs
  • I don’t think we are going easy on China in trade talks
  • US-China trade talks certainly not a failure
  • We are still far apart with Mexico, Canada on NAFTA. Objective is to get a deal, no timeline in mind

Amidst these developments, the sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollar’s rose at the beginning of Monday’s session. Meanwhile, the anti-risk Japanese Yen was lower. After Donald Trump casted some doubt about the progress in trade talks last week, these comments helped to reduce some of the pessimism. However, there was a lack of mention about the claimed $200 billion cut in the US trade deficit with China.

Meanwhile in Italy, a vote was held over the weekend to gauge approval of the proposed government program put together by the anti-establishment parties. The “Contract for a Government for Change” calls for a review of EU economic governance, reducing public debt (not by means of tax and austerity-based interventions) and a flat tax. According to the League party, around 91% of voters backed this program. The markets are also awaiting the next proposed prime minister which may come as early as Monday.

A Look Ahead – All Eyes at Asian Shares

A lack of critical economic event risk during the Asian session will likely put the focus on risk trend. All eyes will turn to how Asian shares react to the progress in US-China trade talks. If benchmark indexes like the Nikkei 225 rally, then the Japanese Yen could fall further yet as the Aussie and New Zealand Dollars keep climbing.

Prior Session Recap – CAD and EUR Decline

The Canadian Dollar took the spotlight on Friday as easily being the worst performing FX major. A worse-than-expected local inflation report sent Bank of Canada rate hike bets tumbling as front-end government bond yields declined. Meanwhile, the Euro came under pressure on uncertainties around Italy’s political situation. The anti-establishment leaders of the League and Five Star parties sealed a coalition agreement that puts forth policies that directly challenge the EU establishment.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Asia Pacific (all times in GMT)

Asia AM Digest: US/China Trade News Lifts AUD, JPY Eyes Tokyo Open

DailyFX Webinar CalendarCLICK HERE to register (all times in GMT)

Asia AM Digest: US/China Trade News Lifts AUD, JPY Eyes Tokyo Open

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: AUD/USD

Asia AM Digest: US/China Trade News Lifts AUD, JPY Eyes Tokyo Open

CLICK HERE to learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index

Retail trader data shows 65.7% of AUD/USD traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.91 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Apr 19 when AUD/USD traded near 0.7781; price has moved 3.5% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 4.0% lower than yesterday and 5.0% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.3% lower than yesterday and 1.7% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Asia AM Digest: US/China Trade News Lifts AUD, JPY Eyes Tokyo OpenAsia AM Digest: US/China Trade News Lifts AUD, JPY Eyes Tokyo OpenAsia AM Digest: US/China Trade News Lifts AUD, JPY Eyes Tokyo OpenAsia AM Digest: US/China Trade News Lifts AUD, JPY Eyes Tokyo Open

Five Things Traders are Reading:

  1. EUR/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Support Test Next for the Euro by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  2. What Do Speculative Extremes Suggest for EUR/USD, Oil and VIX? by John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
  3. Australian Dollar Fall May Pause, If Only For Lack Of Databy David Cottle, Analyst
  4. Yuan May Gain Ahead of MSCI Inclusion; Risk from Trade Disputes Remainsby Renee Mu, Currency Analyst
  5. US Dollar Aims to Extend Rally on FOMC Minutes, Powell Speechby Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES