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The US Dollar crash continues with the DXY Index now down over -2% since the start of trading on Sunday night in New York. EUR/USD cleared 1.2500 for the first time since December 2014, while GBP/USD jumped above 1.4300 for the first time since June 23, 2016 – the day of the Brexit vote. The fallout from US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin’s comments on US Dollar strength yesterday continue to impact price action, and if the ‘strong dollar policy’ is truly in question, more rough trading for the greenback may be ahead.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Thursday, January 25, 2018 – North American Releases
The North American economic calendar is dotted with several ‘low’ and ‘medium’ importance data releases, but all attention has been on the ECB rate decision this morning. With the ECB staying away from what appears to be the early stages of a currency war – following US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin’s comments in Davos – the Euro was able to surge above 1.2500 versus the US Dollar for the first time since December 2014.
DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Thursday, January 25, 2018
IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: EURUSD
Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 30.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.31 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 20.4% lower than yesterday and 14.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.2% higher than yesterday and 0.9% higher from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bullish contrarian trading bias.
Five Things Traders are Reading
- “EUR/USD Surges on ECB; USD Weakness Steals the Show” by James Stanley, Currency Strategist
- “ECB Monetary Policy Unchanged; Inflation Remains a Concern” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
- “Traders Urged to Respond to Proposed European Rule Changes” by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor and Luigi Guida, Analyst
- “S&P 500 Technical Outlook: Instability Growing as Market Goes Off the Rails” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “The Big Question This Week: Is the Euro Too Strong?” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
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