DailyFX US AM Digest: US Dollar Doing Better than DXY Index Implying
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The DXY Index is working on a third consecutive daily doji bar, but the composition of the greenback gauge may be masking the US Dollar’s broad strength on the day.With the British Pound and the Euro holding ground - as the largest two components accounting for almost 70% of the headline reading – the DXY Index has barely moved. Considering that the DXY Index doesn’t take into account the Australian or New Zealand Dollars, the steep drops in the antipodean currencies the past few sessions has been overlooked. Likewise, the continued drop by the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc on the back of US Treasury yields has had a limited impact given that the two currencies barely account for 17% of the DXY Index.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Wednesday, October 25, 2017 – North American Releases
The North American calendar is saturated with key data from both Canada and the United States on Wednesday. The most important American data are in the rearview mirror already: the preliminary September Durable Goods Orders report beat expectations easily. The report is seen as particularly encouraging considering the anticipated impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma on September economic data. Later today September New Home Sales and energy inventory data for the week ending October 20 will be released. The top event of the day comes from Canada, however, when the Bank of Canada will release their latest rate decision and monetary policy report at 10 EDT/14 GMT. Interest rate expectations have contracted over the past several weeks, with overnight index swaps no longer pricing in a third rate hike for 2017. BOC Governor Poloz’s press conference at 11:15 EDT/15:15 GMT will bear interest too, as his recent shift from a hawkish to a neutral rhetorical bias has fueled the Canadian Dollar’s recent pullback.
DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Wednesday, October 25, 2017
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 58.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.41 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 16.0% higher than yesterday and 1.5% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 13.6% lower than yesterday and 9.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.
Five Things Traders are Reading
- “Technical Outlook for US Dollar, EUR & GBP Crosses, Gold, and More” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “USD/CAD – A Look at Options-derived Range Levels Ahead of BoC” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “Gold & Silver Price Analysis Paints a Pair of Possibilities” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “USD/CAD Inverse Head & Shoulders Takes Shape Ahead of BoC Meeting” by David Song, Currency Analyst
- “GBP/USD Bounces as UK GDP Beats Expectations” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
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