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Asia AM Digest: Aussie Dollar May Fall as CPI Data Undershoots

Asia AM Digest: Aussie Dollar May Fall as CPI Data Undershoots

Research, Research Team


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The US Dollar resumed its advance against most G10 FX currencies. The currency rose alongside front-end Treasury bond yields while gold prices fell, pointing to another boost to Fed rate hike speculation as the catalyst driving the move.

Investors may be looking past December’s FOMC meeting, where the probability of a rate hike is now at a formidable 83.6 percent, to focus on next year’s policy path. On that front, the markets’ expectation for the 2018 rate hike trajectory is at its most hawkish setting in seven months.

The New Zealand Dollar continued to underperform in the aftermath of Labour’s victory in post-election coalition negotiations. The latest move lower followed comments from incoming Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern promising to “review and reform” the mandate of the RBNZ.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Asia Pacific (all times in GMT)

Third-quarter Australian CPI data amounts to the only bit of noteworthy event risk in Asia Pacific trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to rise to 2 percent, the lower bound of the RBA’s target range.

A string of increasingly disappointing news-flow since mid-June opens the door for a downside surprise that may hurt the Aussie Dollar. Lasting follow-through may be too much to ask for however considering the central bank already all-but ruled out a near-term interest rate hike.

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IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

CLICK HERE to learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index

Retail trader data shows 40.9% of traders are net-long EUR/USD, with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.44 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 5.6% higher than yesterday and 4.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.2% lower than yesterday and 6.2% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EUR/USD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.