News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • US Dollar Ascending Triangle: FOMC Forecasts Push USD Breakout Potential
  • Fed's Brainard: - Elevated inflation is driven by Covid-related disruptions - The Fed must remain faithful to its new policy framework
  • Powell implied that the Fed is ready to taper, so long as employment data doesn't significantly disappoint. There's one NFP report before the Fed's November meeting, and it's the one Brainard referenced in these comments. NFP released on Oct. 8th (not this Fri but next)
  • Fed's Brainard: - Employment remains short of the bar for tapering, but may meet it soon - The economy continues to make welcome progress
  • Fed's Brainard: - Labor data for Sept. may be weaker than expected - Delta variant has caused more havoc than expected
  • Fed's Williams: - Inflation did not achieve the 2% target because the Fed acted too soon in the past - If the US defaults, the Fed will not be able to repair the economic harm
  • Fed's Williams: - I don't anticipate a significant increase in labor supply in Sept. and Oct. - I believe the job market will be quite robust in 12 months
  • Crude oil back to resistance - #CL2! chart on @TradingView
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Brainard Speech due at 16:50 GMT (15min)
  • Markets reacted earlier today after 10-year U.S. Treasury yields popped resulting in a move away from the South African rand as the U.S. dollar firmed – reducing the attractiveness of the carry trade. Get your market update from @WVenketas here:
Yen Down Despite Retail Beat, USD/JPY Holds Above 2017 Low

Yen Down Despite Retail Beat, USD/JPY Holds Above 2017 Low

David Cottle, Analyst

Talking Points

  • Japanese retail numbers came in generally stronger than the markets expected
  • This contrasted sharply with recent household spending data
  • The US Dollar continued to gain on the Yen, having once again bounced near the year’s lows

Why do some traders seem to have that magic touch? We’ve looked at over 40 million trades in search of an answer. Check out the Traits of Successful Traders

The Japanese Yen continued to slide against a recovering US Dollar Wednesday despite some strong retail numbers out of Japan.

July’s retail trade surged 1.9% on the year, according to official figures. That was much better than the 1% rise expected although it was weaker than June’s 2.2% gain. On the month trade increased by 1.1%, again hugely better than the expected figure which was just 0.3%. Sales at large retailers were the poor relation. They fell by 0.1% on the month, but that was at least as forecast.

The data provide a contrast to Tuesday’s household spending release which showed a notable slip, leaving markets conflicted about the state of the Japanese consumer and, at least as importantly, the likely knock-on effects to still feeble consumer prices. In any case the impact of data on the Yen have been blunted somewhat by the Bank of Japan’s insistence that current, ultra-loose monetary policy will endure until inflation reaches a sustainable 2% annualized level. At the moment it stands at a measly 0.4%, the BoJ having expended more than $4.5 trillion in bond-buying stimulus.

USD/JPY continued to climb in the aftermath as the greenback inched broadly back from this week’s early slip.

Yen Down Despite Retail Beat, USD/JPY Holds Above 2017 Low

More broadly the Japanese Yen has been gaining on the US Dollar as doubts grow about the number of further US interest-rate increases we might see. This week risk aversion inspired by North Korea’s missile test saw the Yen gain further but USD/JPY has once again bounced at crucial support which protects the year’s lows. If the downtrend seen since November 2016 remains in place then this support will surely break, but the bulls are making a fight of it.

Yen Down Despite Retail Beat, USD/JPY Holds Above 2017 Low

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter:@DavidCottleFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.