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EUR Ticks Modestly Higher After Upbeat Euro-Zone Confidence Indicators

EUR Ticks Modestly Higher After Upbeat Euro-Zone Confidence Indicators

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Talking Points

- Official figures show confidence is on the rise in the Euro-Zone, underpinning the single currency.

- German consumer confidence continues to grow.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for next week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

The latest batch of Euro-Zone confidence indicators confirm the recovery seen in recent months and point to improved morale in the bloc.

The April European Commission Survey showed economic confidence jumped to 109.6 against expectations of 108.1 and a prior, upwardly revised reading of 108.0, while consumer confidence remained steady at -3.6, matching expectations and last month’s reading.

Industrial confidence also jumped to 2.6, trumping expectations of 1.3 and last month’s upwardly revised figure of 1.3, while services confidence soared to 14.2 beating expectations of 12.9 and March’s upwardly revised figure of 12.8.

Earlier in the European session, the May German GfK consumer confidence survey showed that optimism in Europe’s largest economy is on the rise. The consumer climate reading rose to 10.2, beating market expectations of 9.9 and April’s print of 9.8.

“Consumers in Germany are confident that the national economy is on the right path in the coming months, as shown by the noticeable increase in economic expectation in April. The increasing economic optimism as well as a more moderate increase in prices mean that the income prospects of German citizens, which were already at a high level, have increased even further, GfK reported.

The EUR steadied after the release and remains range bound as ECB President Mario Draghi readies his latest monetary policy announcement.

Chart: EURUSD 1-Minute Timeframe (April 27, 2017).

EUR Ticks Modestly Higher After Upbeat Euro-Zone Confidence Indicators

Chart by IG

The market’s attention will now turn to the latest ECB monetary policy announcement at 11.45 GMT and the closely-followed press conference 45 minutes later. While policy is expected to be left unchanged, investors will look for any change in the wording in the press statement, and in the subsequent Q&A, to see if the central bank is taking a slightly more hawkish stance. Commentators have shifted their views in the last few weeks towards a more ‘when not if’ stance on ECB tapering and monetary tightening.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at Nicholas.cawley@ig.com

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