News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Australian Dollar looks poised to outperform the haven-associated US Dollar and Japanese Yen. However, it may lose ground to the New Zealand Dollar. Key levels for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/cuxRxl5WaF https://t.co/pujrmqSxV7
  • Has anyone explained the risk of inflation on the markets in terms of tendies?
  • The US Dollar is trying to break higher versus ASEAN currencies. The Singapore Dollar, Philippine Peso, Thai Baht and Indonesian Rupiah are under pressure. Will follow-through last? Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/JOWG9q01q0 https://t.co/j2ICxgrLa3
  • The commodity-sensitive Canadian Dollar may continue outperforming its major counterparts in the coming weeks. USD/CAD, CAD/CHF, CAD/JPY and EUR/CAD key levels to watch. Get your $USDCAD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/9bkVXQuP5C https://t.co/cLNEG36mZ8
  • We just closed out the heaviest week of volume for the $SPY (US equities) since June and $TLT (Treasuries) since March 16
  • Get your snapshot update of the of market open and closing times for each major trading hub around the globe here: https://t.co/BgZLFljIhZ https://t.co/YjUfOUY3vU
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: -0.30% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.41% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.62% 🇨🇦CAD: -1.12% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.87% 🇦🇺AUD: -2.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ZdHY0q1ocW
  • #Gold Price Forecast: Gold Breakdown Accelerates – $XAUUSD Bulls Done? - https://t.co/uATlmZg8g6 https://t.co/vIbhg5HOko
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.20% Gold: -2.10% Silver: -2.97% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/UVS4Dowq2o
  • Nasdaq ETF QQQ sees its largest outflow in a month as investors shied away from tech stocks. Get your #Nasdaq market update here:https://t.co/tQU09WVHMD https://t.co/onCVQl0xay
Will Greece Return to Haunt the EU After IMF Refutes Austerity Claims?

Will Greece Return to Haunt the EU After IMF Refutes Austerity Claims?

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Talking Points

- IMF says that it did not call for additional Greek austerity measures.

- Warns that significant debt relief and structural reforms are needed.

- Next year brings a host of European elections.

A recent blog post by two senior International Monetary Fund officials appears to pour cold water on claims that the institution is demanding additional austerity measures from Greece as the second review of its European Stability Mechanism (ESM) program gains pace. The re-emergence of debt relief talk will be unwelcome news for those in Brussels who are currently busying themselves with Brexit negotiations and the ongoing financial problems in the Italian banking sector. A re-opening of fractious Greek debt talks will also hurt the single currency especially ahead of potentially problematic elections in the Netherlands, France, Italy and Germany next year.

According to IMF officials, chief economist Maurice Obstfeld and European department director Poul Thomsen, the institution is not demanding more austerity, either now or as a means to lower the need for much needed debt relief over the mediumterm.They said that when the Greek Government agreed with its European partners in the context of the ESM program to push the Greek economy to a primary fiscal surplus of 3.5% by 2018, “We warned that this would generate a degree of austerity that could prevent the nascent recovery from taking hold. We projected that the measures in the ESM program will deliver a surplus of only 1.5% of GDP, and said this would be enough for us to support a program. We did not call for additional measures to achieve a higher surplus. But contrary to our advice, the Greek Government agreed with the European institutions to temporarily compress spending further if needed to ensure that the surplus would reach 3.5% of GDP.”

Further, the two argue that while the country has made a huge fiscal adjustment it has done so without addressing two key problems—an income-tax regime that exempts more than half of households from any obligation and an extremely generous pension system. Moreover, they say that no amount of structural reform will make it sustainable again without “significant debt relief”.

And it is the thorny issue of debt relief that will chime the loudest, with Germany in particular unlikely to give any backing to any proposal to reduce Greece’s onerous debt pile. With elections ahead next year, and with incumbent Chancellor Angela Merkel already coming under pressure over her migrant policy, arguing for Greek debt relief will be the last thing on Merkel’s list of things to do in 2017.

The political situation in Greece may also come back into play, with recent polls showing the more European Union friendly New Democracy (ND) party overtaking the anti-EU ruling Syriza party in voting intensions. A shift in government towards ND, along with the promise of further debt relief talks further down the line, may well bring the EU the precious breathing space it needs as it readies itself for a clutch of tricky elections in 2017.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

--- To contact Nick, email him at Nicholas.cawley@ig.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES