News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • - Unreal atmosphere - Shame about the result, but no complaints - Usyk masterclass - Heavyweight division blown wide open
  • The USD could still rally a bit from here, but has resistance not far ahead that it will need to overcome if it is to extend to a larger degree. Get your weekly $USD technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • When it comes to buying and selling forex, traders have unique styles and approaches. Learn about buying and selling forex here:
  • Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. Learn about FX slippage here:
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • The results of this weekend’s German Federal Election will likely dominate Euro sentiment at the start of the week ahead but after a possible EUR/USD bounce they will have little long-term impact. Get your weekly $EUR forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here:
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:
  • Sterling continues to contract into trend extremes and the focus is on a pending breakout in the weeks ahead. Get your weekly $GBP technical forecast from @MBForex here:
USDJPY Running Out of Steam as Extremes Are Not Meant to Last

USDJPY Running Out of Steam as Extremes Are Not Meant to Last

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Talking Points:

  • It’s quite rare for the USDJPY to gain or decline for more than 6 consecutive weeks
  • A negative divergence in the pair’s persistent runs has developed over the two years
  • Download the Consecutive Bars Indicator to see these same runs on the Tradestation Marketscope 2.0 platform for free, here

Between 2005 and 2012, it was a rare event to see USDJPY rally or tumble for more than six consecutive weeks. Since the pair started its incredible run from record lows, however, these instances have grown more dramatic. Runs of such remarkable consistency represent exceptionally strong trends, but the more mature these moves are, the greater the likelihood that a correction (be it small or large) is going to occur. Using the DailyFX Consecutive Bars App we find that a record breaking 11-consecutive week run formed in the lead up to the Bank of Japan’s open-ended stimulus program (introduced April 4, 2013). Since then though, the bullish drive has come in shorter and shorter waves.

A divergence in the consistency of the USDJPY’s rallies does not necessarily indicate that a reversal is at hand (this is a weekly chart, so timing needs to account for the periodicity at the very least). Given the proper fundamentals and speculative appetite, the pair can continue its advance; but its progress would likely be more measured.

Looking at the 1Q 2015 forecasts for the US Dollar and Japanese Yen produced by the DailyFX Analysts, the long-term bull trend does find significant support. However, as bullish appetite dries up; the chance of a rebalancing grows. In fact, after the 11 consecutive week rally through 11/10/2012 and the 8 week rally through 10/26/2013, the USDJPY failed to go to any relative extremes over a period spanning 8 months. When BOJ surprised us with additional stimulus (introduced October 31, 2014) the USDJPY diverted from a rebalancing towards a shorter wave of consecutive gains that lasted 6 weeks. The DailyFX Consecutive Bars App can be used to find extreme movements and we can use past performance to see just how persistent trends are (in this case on a weekly basis).

USDJPY Running Out of Steam as Extremes Are Not Meant to Last

Weekly Chart Created Using FXCM Tradestation Marketscope 2.0

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.