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US Dollar Outlook: USD/TRY Volatility Spikes as Lira Implodes

US Dollar Outlook: USD/TRY Volatility Spikes as Lira Implodes

Rich Dvorak, Analyst

US DOLLAR OUTLOOK: USD/TRY PRICE VOLATILITY EXPLODES TO RECORD HIGH, DXY INDEX STILL EYEING TREASURY YIELDS

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The broader US Dollar edged slightly lower on Monday in large part to EUR/USD strength. This was somewhat offset by US Dollar gains against its Canadian Dollar peer. On balance, the DXY Index dropped a mere -0.15% alongside a modest pullback in US Treasury yields. US Dollar bulls have also been struggling to surmount nearside resistance posed by the 92.00-handle, but the short-term 8-day simple moving average seems to be helping keep the DXY Index afloat.

DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (14 OCT 2020 TO 22 MAR 2021)

DXY Index Price Chart US Dollar Technical Forecast

Chart by @RichDvorakFX created using TradingView

That said, broader US Dollar strength could resume if Treasury yields rebound back higher. This might bring the negatively-sloped 200-day simple moving average into focus as a potential topside objective for US Dollar bulls. On the other hand, slipping below the 8-day simple moving average may motivate US Dollar bears to have another look at last week’s lows around the 90.30-price level.

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USD PRICE OUTLOOK – US DOLLAR IMPLIED VOLATILITY TRADING RANGES (OVERNIGHT)

USD Price Chart Outlook US Dollar Implied Volatility Trading Ranges EURUSD USDCAD USDTRY

US Dollar implied volatility readings appear to be creeping higher judging by the latest overnight readings. Looking ahead to Tuesday’s trading session, we see a string of speeches from FOMC officials, in addition to a congressional testimony from Fed Chair Powell, scheduled out on the DailyFX Economic Calendar. Commentary from key Federal Reserve personnel could weigh on the direction of Treasury yields and the US Dollar. Though not listed on the table above, USD/TRY overnight implied volatility has rocketed to a record-high at 70%. This follows a sharply weaker Lira in response to Turkish President Erdogan removing central bank governor Naci Agbal from his post over the weekend.

Read More – How to Trade the Top 10 Most Volatile Currency Pairs

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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