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USD Price Outlook: US Dollar Awaits Powell Speech at Jackson Hole

USD Price Outlook: US Dollar Awaits Powell Speech at Jackson Hole

2020-08-26 21:30:00
Rich Dvorak, Analyst
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US DOLLAR OUTLOOK: USD PRICE HINGES ON UPCOMING FED CHAIR POWELL SPEECH AT JACKSON HOLE SYMPOSIUM

  • US Dollar dropped over the last two trading sessions as bulls struggle to sustain a bid
  • The DXY Index has largely drifted sideways so far this month within a broad range
  • USD price action turns to a speech from Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium

The Greenback has officially surrendered its post-PMI data gains with the US Dollar Index dropping back below the 93.00-price level. USD price action has faced renewed selling pressure over the last two trading sessions as the short-term relief bounce finds conflict with a broader bearish trend underpinned by the string of lower highs notched last month.

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US DOLLAR INDEX PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (05 JUN TO 26 AUG 2020)

US Dollar Index Price Chart Jackson Hole Symposium

Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView

US Dollar turbulence this month, however, seems to have defined a rough trading range between key barriers of technical support and resistance. The DXY Index is currently hovering around the mid-point of this range and also gravitating around its 8-day moving average. This comes as FX traders anxiously await an upcoming speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium scheduled for tomorrow, August 27.

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USD PRICE OUTLOOK – US DOLLAR IMPLIED VOLATILITY TRADING RANGES (OVERNIGHT)

USD price chart US Dollar outlook Fed Chair Powell Speech Jackson Hole Symposium August 2020

Uncertainty surrounding potential tweaks to Fed monetary policy – such as speculation around changes to how the central bank gauges inflation benchmarks or manages interest rate targets – could fuel market volatility. This is highlighted by the latest 24-hour US Dollar implied volatility readings just pulled for Thursday’s trading session.

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Overnight USD implied volatility readings are running red-hot when compared to measurements taken over the last 12-months and are also notably higher than 20-day averages across the major currency pairs. Options-implied trading ranges are calculated using 1-standard deviation (i.e. 68% statistical probability price action is contained within the implied trading range over the specified time frame).

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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