US DOLLAR OUTLOOK: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD PRICE ACTION EYED, NONFARM PAYROLLS DATA ON DECK
- USD price action has ripped and dipped over the last five sessions as the DXY Index swings
- The US Dollar is currently perched around two-year lows on the back of prolonged weakness
- EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD could be due for heightened volatility around nonfarm payrolls
The US Dollar may be gearing up for what could be a volatile trading session this Friday, August 07. This is considering high-impact nonfarm payrolls data slated to cross market wires at 12:30 GMT. The monthly NFP report has a history of catalyzing elevated measurements of market activity and US Dollar volatility.
US Dollar weakness has garnered quite a bit of attention recently with the broader DXY Index fluctuating around its lowest level in two-years. Sustained selling pressure across USD price action subsided late last month as the US Dollar tried to claw back downside against major FX peers like the Euro, Pound, and Australian Dollar.
It appears that those rebound attempts were short-lived, however, with the broader US Dollar now gravitating around the lower end of its recent range. That said, with employment data on deck for release, perhaps forex traders will turn to this closely watched economic indicator in search of a possible fundamental driver that might carry enough credence to spark a US Dollar reversal or its next leg lower.
EUR/USD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (10 APR TO 06 AUG 2020)
The US Dollar reversal attempt against the Euro garnered little traction earlier this week when EUR/USD bulls flexed their muscles and maintained the upward-sloping 8-day moving average on Monday. This short-term moving average has provided notable buoyancy to EUR/USD price action as illustrated in the daily candlestick chart above. Yet, the Euro’s advance against the US Dollar may have stalled out at the 1.1900-price level.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | 20% | -26% | -11% |
| Weekly | -7% | 7% | 0% |
This area of technical resistance appears around last month’s swing high and this week’s options-implied high at 1.1892. US Dollar weakness could accelerate if EUR/USD bulls can surmount this obstacle. On the other hand, another rejection at this technical barrier might suggest US Dollar selling pressure has grown exhausted.
In addition to the monthly jobs report on tap for release tomorrow, US Congress is currently arguing over another coronavirus relief bill, and the latest fiscal stimulus headlines could weigh notably on USD price action as well.
-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com
Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight
