News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Is investing in your favorite brand or buying its products the better financial move? Read the article for a breakdown. https://t.co/iWOlDAK8cD https://t.co/0uS5VvWj12
  • Crude oil prices collapsed on Monday despite an OPEC+ breakthrough, driven by Covid-induced demand woes. Meanwhile, Gold is at odds with a stronger US Dollar and falling Treasury yields. Get your #crudeoil market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/H1vmag8d1k https://t.co/PW5pCw9dKR
  • The Japanese Yen has been making a comeback, but it may soon resume its decline against the US Dollar as USD/JPY consolidates within a bullish Falling Wedge. Watch for a breakout. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/zxRWoNR4lS https://t.co/bXTx0TSRmU
  • BTC/USD treading water sideways, 28600 the big level to watch. ETH/USD working on forming a nice-looking descending wedge. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/H1qOV4FR1P https://t.co/tjutUl7Nt7
  • Gold hasn’t been very active the past few sessions, but that could change next week and provide a stronger trading bias. Get your weekly gold technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/HaEe3i4Sug https://t.co/LsARS2mnFI
  • Market uncertainty sees GBP pairs break out of their ranges. Get your weekly GBP forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/IRO7a6Jv8J https://t.co/4LxWz7sOVF
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.03% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.16% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.21% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.36% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/AXKeEsin95
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.02% Gold: -0.27% Silver: -0.91% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/PgsZBsHHp8
  • The Canadian Dollar is poised to snap a three week losing streak against the US Dollar after USD/CAD reversed sharply off technical resistance early in the week. Get your $CAD market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/JhO6n3Di9h https://t.co/17N1aFRUDB
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.45%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 75.29%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/3ADpF5W5Af
USD/CAD Outlook: August High Still on Radar as RSI Tracks Upward Trend

USD/CAD Outlook: August High Still on Radar as RSI Tracks Upward Trend

David Song, Strategist

Canadian Dollar Talking Points

USD/CAD consolidatesas it quickly pulls back from a fresh monthly high (1.3419), but the August high (1.3451) remains on the radar as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) tracks the upward trend established in September and approaches overbought territory.

USD/CAD Outlook: August High Still on Radar as RSI Tracks Upward Trend

USD/CAD largely tracks the range bound price action from earlier this week, and an improvement in investor confidence may drag on the exchange rate as the US Dollar reflects an inverse relationship with risk appetite.

However, the move back above the former-support zone around the March/June low (1.3315) may keep USD/CAD afloat as the RSI approaches overbought territory, and the indicator may show the advance from the yearly low (1.2994) gathering pace if the oscillator breaks above 70 to reflect the extreme readings seen in March.

It remains to be seen if the shift in risk appetite will persist in October as the Federal Reserve’s balance sheetwidens for the second week to reach its highest level since June, but it seems as though Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. will rely on its current tools to support the US economy even though the central bank plans to “achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time.

In turn, swings in investor confidence may influence USD/CAD as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on track to retain the current policy at the next interest rate decision on November 5, but the tilt in retail sentiment looks poised to persist as traders have been net-long the pair since mid-May.

Image of IG Client Sentiment for USD/CAD rate

The IG Client Sentiment report shows 55.62% of traders are still net-long USD/CAD, with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.25 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 3.85% lower than yesterday and 18.55% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.45% lower than yesterday and 33.94% higher from last week.

The decline in net-long position along with the surge in net-short interest has helped to alleviate the crowding behavior in USD/CAD as 61.86% of traders were net-long last week, and the tilt in retail sentiment may continue to abate as there appears to be a broader shift in market behavior.

With that said, USD/CAD may continue to consolidate following the string of failed attempt to test the August high (1.3451), but the exchange rate may stage a larger recovery as long as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to track the upward trend established in September.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

USD/CAD Rate Daily Chart

Image of USD/CAD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the USD/CAD correction from the 2020 high (1.4667) managed to fill the price gap from March, with the decline in the exchange rate pushing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) into oversold territory for the first time since the start of the year.
  • Nevertheless, USD/CAD reversed from the March low (1.3315) in June, with both price and the RSI carving an upward trend during the month, but the bullish formations have been largely negated as the exchange rate snapped the range bound price action during the first half of July.
  • USD/CAD managed to track the June range throughout July as the RSI broke out of a downward trend, but the failed attempt to push back above the 1.3440 (23.6% expansion) to 1.3460 (61.8% retracement) region has spurred a break of the March/June low (1.3315) even though the momentum indicator failed to push into oversold territory.
  • The decline from the August high (1.3451) briefly pushed the RSI below 30, but lacked the momentum to produce a test of the January low (1.2957) as the indicator failed to reflect the extreme reading in June, with the oscillator quickly recovering from oversold territory.
  • As a result, the advance from the monthly low (1.2994) has pushed USD/CAD above 50-Day SMA (1.3249) for the first time since May, with the exchange rate trading back above the former-support zone around the March/June low (1.3315).
  • The close above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.3290 (61.8% expansion) to 1.3320 (78.6% retracement) keeps the 1.3440 (23.6% expansion) to 1.3460 (61.8% retracement) region on the radar as it lines up with the August high (1.3451), and the exchange rate may stage a larger recovery as long as the RSI continues to track the upward trend established in September.
  • Will keep a close eye on the RSI as it approaches overbought territory, with a move above 70 likely to be accompanied by a further appreciation in USD/CAD like the behavior seen in March.
  • The next area of interest coming in around 1.3510 (38.2% expansion) to 1.3540 (23.6% retracement) followed by the 1.3580 (50% expansion) region.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES