News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The recent rebound in USD/CAD appears to be stalling ahead of the Federal Reserve’s first meeting for 2021 as it quickly pulls back from a fresh weekly high (1.2782). Get your $USDCAD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/km0dY2MQ7w https://t.co/wHm6YVqvAs
  • White House plans call with congressional problem solvers caucus on Tuesday to discuss $1.9trillion COVID-19 stimulus bill
  • $GBPCHF has strengthened today, rising from a morning low around 1.2105 to currently trade around 1.2190. The pair is currently testing its highest levels since the onset of the Covid pandemic. $GBP $CHF https://t.co/q2bH28zYi6
  • ECB's Villeroy says we monitor carefully the implications of the exchange rate on the inflation outlook $EUR
  • Forex Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.63% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.49% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.42% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.29% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.15% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.13% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/SuCtbOvRLU
  • Poll: Which of these extraordinarily volatile and recently popular assets is most disconnected from 'traditional fundamentals' and fully in the hands of the speculative tribe?
  • Indices Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 2.01% France 40: 1.51% FTSE 100: 0.51% Wall Street: 0.15% US 500: 0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/6OgqApsW9T
  • The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence survey edged up with this morning's January reading, but that marginal uptick can't touch the impressive charge of speculative conviction via the likes of the $SPX https://t.co/zztL1tzlfE
  • $AUDUSD has strengthened by around 50 pips this morning, climbing from a morning low below 0.7700 to currently trade around 0.7750, its highest level since last week. $AUD $USD https://t.co/UDJ8i9mifv
  • Italian PM Conte has informed his cabinet that he will resign, which has come ahead of the Senate vote on the justice minister’s annual report, where there had been a risk of a government defeat. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/U3ZTcYF3BH https://t.co/GIZLlT2a5I
NZD/USD Rate Eyes April Low Ahead of New Zealand Retail Sales Report

NZD/USD Rate Eyes April Low Ahead of New Zealand Retail Sales Report

David Song, Strategist

New Zealand Dollar Talking Points

NZD/USD attempts to retrace the decline following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting, but the exchange rate may continue to give back the advance from the April low (0.5843) amid the failed attempt to push above the former support zone around 0.6170 (50% expansion) to 0.6230 (38.2% expansion).

NZD/USD Rate Eyes April Low Ahead of New Zealand Retail Sales Report

NZD/USD bounces back from a fresh monthly low (0.5921) ahead of New Zealand’s 1Q Retail Sales report, but the update may produce a bearish reaction in the exchange rate as private sector consumption is expected to contract 1.5% following the 0.7% expansion during the last three months of 2019.

In response, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may take additional steps to support the economy as the central bank expands its Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) programin May to NZ$60 billion from NZ$33 billion, and Governor Adrian Orr and Co. may retain a dovish forward guidance at the next meeting on June 24 as the “Monetary Policy Committee is prepared to use additional monetary policy tools if and when needed, including reducing the OCR (official cash rate) further.”

Image of RBNZ interest rate

Source: RBNZ

The gradual processes in restarting the New Zealand economy may force the RBNZ to deploy more unconventional tools as “members agreed that a ‘least regrets’ monetary policy approach is needed,” and it seems as though the central bank will remain proactive in combating the economic shock from COVID-19 as officials insist that “there are policy tools available that have not yet been used.

However, the RBNZ appears to be in no rush to implement a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) as Governor Orr and Co. argue that “further OCR reductions at this stage would not be effective,” and it remains to be seen if the central bank will implement more non-standard measures over the coming months as “members noted that the main thing needed to support the economy is fiscal stimulus.”

In turn, the RBNZ may revert to a wait-and-see approach after expanding the LSAP program, but speculation for a NIRP in New Zealand may continue to drag on NZD/USD especially as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell tames bets for negative US interest rates.

With that said, NZD/USD may continue to give back the advance from the April low (0.5843) amid the failed attempt to push above the former support zone around 0.6170 (50% expansion) to 0.6230 (38.2% expansion).

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by David Song
Forex for Beginners
Get My Guide

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

NZD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of NZD/USD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, NZD/USD has failed to retain the range from the second half of 2019 as the decline from earlier this year produced a break of the October low (0.6204), with a ‘death cross’ taking shape in March as the 50-Day SMA (0.5996) crossed below the 200-Day SMA (0.6324).
  • The negative slope in both the 50-Day SMA and the 200-Day SMA offer a bearish outlook for NZD/USD, and the advance from the yearly low (0.5469) appears to have stalled ahead of the former support zone around 0.6170 (50% expansion) to 0.6230 (38.2% expansion) as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snap the bullish formations from March.
  • NZD/USD extends the decline from earlier this month following the failed attempt to test the April high (0.6176), with the break/close below the 0.6000 (100% expansion) to 0.6010 (161.8% expansion) region bringing the 0.5880 (100% expansion) area on the radar.
  • Need a break of the April low (0.5843) to open up the Fibonacci overlap around 0.5740 (78.6% retracement) to 0.5790 (61.8% retracement), with the next area of interest coming in around 0.5640 (261.8% expansion).
Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders
Recommended by David Song
Traits of Successful Traders
Get My Guide

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES