News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The $VIX can't continue to trace out this coasting pattern for long. Again, I don't usually throw technical analysis on indicators derived from underlying activity, but VIX has become a trading vehicle in its own right https://t.co/qBvMeOCmmW
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.31% Oil - US Crude: -0.08% Gold: -0.32% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/DpPoyNP5hl
  • After a strong breakout this summer, Gold prices have now spent almost six months digesting. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/H7k5kv4N5i https://t.co/shvReKpe1U
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 70.32%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/ivQLPokYOs
  • The US Dollar is now trading lower again. After hitting an intraday low around 90.15, the $DXY rebounded to 90.25 but has turned toward again, falling back below 90.20. $USD https://t.co/xyglMBmakL
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.14% Wall Street: 0.06% US 500: 0.03% Germany 30: 0.02% FTSE 100: -0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/SbFlX1iTdj
  • #Gold is consolidating slightly higher this week, around $1,850, after the precious metal's failed attempt at breaking above the $1,870 level last week. $XAU $GLD https://t.co/MyeWiBSQZR
  • US 10yr yields have notably tightened, falling from 1.10% yesterday to trade around 1.04% today. Yields still remain elevated in 2021 compared to earlier in the pandemic. $GOVT $IEF $USD https://t.co/uT27KDUkhM
  • Hey traders! Get your Tuesday market update from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/WPk9aapKhs
  • $EURGBP is currently trading around 0.8855, nearing the lows set around 0.8840 last week. A break below this level would mark the pair's lowest level since May. $EUR $GBP https://t.co/QinuctvrVK
AUD/USD Weakness to Persist as Bullish RSI Formations Falter

AUD/USD Weakness to Persist as Bullish RSI Formations Falter

David Song, Strategist

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD trades to a fresh monthly low (0.6827) ahead of Australia’s Employment report, and recent developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) instills a bearish outlook for the exchange rate as the oscillator snaps the upwards trends carried over from 2019.

AUD/USD Weakness to Persist as Bullish RSI Formations Falter

AUD/USD extends the series of lower highs and lows from earlier this week even though Australia Treasurer Josh Frydenberg tweets that the “Australian economy remains remarkably resilient,” and the correction from the 2019 low (0.6671) may continue to unravel as the ongoing wildfire is expected to curb “everything from tourism to household consumption.”

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by David Song
Forex for Beginners
Get My Guide

Mr. Frydenberg warns that the “full economic impact is still uncertain” as the government struggles to contain the disaster, and fears of an economic shock may put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to implement lower interest rates as Governor Philip Lowe and Co. insist that the board has “the ability to provide further stimulus.

Nevertheless, updates to Australia’s Employment report may keep the RBA on the sidelines as the economy is anticipated to add 10.0K jobs in December, and a further improvement in the labor market may encourage the central bank to endorse a wait-and-see approach at its first meeting for 2020 as “the Australian economy appeared to have reached a gentle turning point.

Image of RBA interest rate decisions

In turn, the RBA may merely attempt to buy time on February 4, but the data may do little to influence the monetary policy outlook as “the current rate of wages growth was not consistent with inflation being sustainably within the target range.”

As a result, the RBA may continue to respond to the slowdown in global growth and insulate the economy from the shift in US trade policy as China, Australia’s largest trading partner, expands 6.0% in the fourth-quarter of 2019, the lowest reading since the series began in 1992.

With that said, Governor Lowe and Co. may retain a dovish forward guidance in 2020, andAUD/USD may face a more bearish fate over the coming months as the Federal Reserve moves way from its rate easing cycle.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

AUD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of AUD/USD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • AUD/USD has been capped by the 200-Day SMA (0.6887) for most of 2019, but the recent break/close above the moving average signaled a potential shift in market behavior especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushed into overbought territory for the first time since 2018.
  • However, the bullish momentum may continue to abate as the RSI falls back from overbought territory, with the oscillator snapping the bullish formations from the previous year.
  • Keep in mind, the monthly opening range has been a key dynamic for AUD/USD in the fourth quarter of 2019 as the exchange rate carved a major low on October 2, with monthly high for November occurring during the first full week of the month, while the low for December happened on the first day of the month.
  • The opening range for 2020 highlights a similar dynamic as AUD/USD extends the decline from the December high (0.7032).
  • In turn, the correction from the 2019 low (0.6671) may continue to unravel as it failed to produce a test of the July high (0.7082), with AUD/USD pushing to fresh monthly lows following the string of failed attempts to close above 0.6910 (38.2% expansion).
  • The break/close below 0.6850 (78.6% expansion) region opens up the 0.6800 (61.8% expansion) handle, with the next area of interest coming in around 0.6720 (78.6% expansion) to 0.6730 (100% expansion) followed by the overlap around 0.6630 (100% expansion) to 0.6650 (61.8% expansion).
Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders
Recommended by David Song
Traits of Successful Traders
Get My Guide

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES