News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Rollover is the interest paid or earned for holding a currency spot position overnight. Learn how to earn rollover interest on your open positions here: https://t.co/SRsG8CxjEn https://t.co/2AR1qgx0tz
  • The New Zealand Dollar is in a tricky spot. On one hand, rising stocks can propel NZD. On the other, a dovish RBNZ ahead could cool bond yields as the government tackles soaring housing costs. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/5rjm2gr3EL https://t.co/aLwhWHMPqz
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/obH0RFLKhC
  • It was a big Q1 for $USDJPY but so far Q2 has been a far different tone. Which side will prevail? Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/TxlD3zoglZ https://t.co/rUQnokAx30
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/ycjWjCETQJ
  • The RBA highlighting several key risks to the local economy in its semi-annual FSR may drive AUD lower against haven-associated currencies despite the expectation of strong Q1 GDP figures out of China. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/kLZ8DQxH3z https://t.co/KubqA24TLH
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/H19vRDCpUJ https://t.co/36Sy4DOnFD
  • Though the $SPX hit a record high through Friday, there was little momentum and far less correlation across various risk assets. Can we find more serious traction - or a reversal - amid earnings, inflation-Fed forecasting, US-China trade negotiations? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/04/10/SP-500-Outlook-Carries-Risk-Trends-Dollar-Event-Heavy-on-USDJPY-USDCNH.html https://t.co/AVTM9QvEGQ
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/DWm7cBMUg9 https://t.co/Gd6eIbE1mb
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/Jf96VhFDOp
AUD/USD Eyes 2019-Low as China Pledges to Retaliate to US Blacklist

AUD/USD Eyes 2019-Low as China Pledges to Retaliate to US Blacklist

David Song, Strategist

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD extends the decline from earlier this week amid waning hopes for an imminent US-China trade deal, and the exchange rate appears to be on track to test the 2019-low (0.6671) as it carves a fresh series of lower highs and lows.

AUD/USD Eyes 2019-Low as China Pledges to Retaliate to US Blacklist

The recent rebound in AUD/USD continues to unravel as China signaled it would retaliate against the Trump administration for blacklisting 8 tech companies, with China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Geng Shuang, urging the US to “immediately correct its mistake, withdraw the relevant decision and stop interfering in China’s internal affairs.”

During the press conference, Mr. Shuang went on to say that “the US violates the basic norms governinginternational relations, interferes in China's internal affairs and undermines China's interests,” and the comments suggest the trade talks starting on October 10 will bear little fruit as the Foreign Ministry pledges to “take resolute and powerful measures to safeguard our sovereignty, security and development interests.”

Signs of a prolonged US-China trade war may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to further insulate the economy, and the central bank may continue to embark on its rate easing cycle as the board remains “prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed.”

Image of RBA interest rate

The RBA may continue to push monetary policy into uncharted territory as the central bank gauges the effective lower bound (ELB) for the official cash rate (OCR), and it seems as though Australian policymakers will have little choice but to deploy non-standard measures as Governor Philip Lowe insist that unconventional monetary policy tools (UMPTs) “have proved to be an effective addition to central banks’ policy toolkit.”

With that said, it remains to be seen if the RBA will deliver another 25bp rate cut at the next meeting on November 5as Governor Lowe pushes for “a renewed focus on structural measures to lift the nation's productivity performance,”but the Australian Dollar may face a more bearish fate over the remainder of the year as the central bank continues to combat the weakening outlook for the Asia/Pacific region.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

AUD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of AUD/USD daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the AUD/USD rebound following the currency market flash-crash has been capped by the 200-Day SMA (0.6982), with the exchange rate marking another failed attempt to break/close above the moving average in July.
  • More recently, AUDUSD has taken out the September-low (0.6688) following the RBA meeting, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) offering a bearish signal as the oscillator snaps the bullish formation from August.
  • Lack of momentum to hold above the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6720 (78.6% expansion) to 0.6740 (38.2% expansion) brings the 0.6690 (50% expansion) region on the radar, but the string of failed attempts to close below the stated level raises the risk for range-bound conditions.
  • Need a close below 0.6690 (50% expansion) to open up the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6620 (100% expansion) to 0.6640 (61.8% expansion), with the next area of interest coming in around 0.6580 (78.6% expansion).

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES