0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • A large amount of US Treasuries on tap this week - $48b 3-years today, $38b 10-years tomorrow and $26b 30-years on Friday #yields #treasuries #bonds @DailyFXTeam
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.05%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.97%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/bOIQPXZFko
  • Heads Up:🇲🇽 Industrial Production YoY (JUN) due at 11:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -17.8% Previous: -30.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-11
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 BCB Copom Meeting Minutes due at 11:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-11
  • The London trading session accounts for around 35% of total average forex turnover*, the largest amount relative to its peers. The London forex session overlaps with the New York session. Learn about trading the London forex session here: https://t.co/UTWxbnNz7M https://t.co/Lj9V09Gtnu
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.56% Gold: -1.98% Silver: -3.20% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/bwxZBdzT9z
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.51% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.45% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.44% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.25% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.23% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/X79P6EsMnj
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 2.74% France 40: 2.73% FTSE 100: 2.28% Wall Street: 0.91% US 500: 0.59% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/SvvEG07UEc
  • NZ PM says Auckland will move to level 3 restrictions for 3 days $NZD
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/dnwQT6AhKF
Oil Prices Vulnerable to Rising Crude Inventories, Non-OPEC Output

Oil Prices Vulnerable to Rising Crude Inventories, Non-OPEC Output

2019-03-12 15:30:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Oil Talking Points

The recent rebound in crude appears to be stalling ahead of the monthly-high ($57.81) even as Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) keep a lid on production, and the price of oil stands at risk of facing a larger pullback as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reverses course ahead of overbought territory.

Image of daily change for financial markets

Oil Prices Vulnerable to Rising Crude Inventories, Non-OPEC Output

Image of daily change for crude oil prices

Fresh comments from OPEC Secretary GeneralMohammad Barkindo suggest the group will continue to regulate supply despite the recent tweet by U.S. President Donald Trump as the official notes that the efforts to rebalance the energy market are still a ‘work in progress.’

It seems as though OPEC and its allies will at least fulfill the six-month agreement to shore up oil prices as the most recent Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) projects a further reduction in oil demand, and the current environment may keep crude prices afloat as the group shows little to no interest in abandoning the extraordinary efforts.

It remains to be seen if the OPEC+ alliance will be extended again as the International Energy Agency (IEA) states that ‘the United States will account for 70% of the increase in global production capacity until 2024, adding a total of 4 mb/d,’ and the ongoing expansion in non-OPEC production may force the group to take additional steps as Russia Energy Minister,Alexander Novak,asserts that the region is on track of meeting its commitment of reducing output by 228Kb/d by the end of March.

Image of DailyFX economic calendarImage of eia us field production of crude oil

However, updates from the U.S. Energy Information (EIA) are anticipated to show crude inventories climbing another 3000K in the week ending March 8, with weekly field output currently holding at the record-high of 12,100K b/d in the week ending March 1, and signs of easing demand paired with the gradual rise in non-OPEC production may drag on oil prices as the OPEC+ alliance is set to expire in June.

With that said, the advance from the 2018-low ($42.36) may continue to unravel ahead of the next OPEC meeting in April as price fails to hold trendline support, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may highlight similar dynamic as the oscillator reverses course ahead of overbought territory.Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

CL1 Daily Chart

Image of oil daily chart
  • The advance from the 2018-low ($42.36) appears to have stalled amid the string of failed attempts to close above the $57.40 (61.8% retracement) hurdle, with crude failing to preserve the upward from December as it threatens the range-bound price action carried over from the previous month.
  • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) may highlight a similar dynamic over the coming days as it flops ahead of overbought territory and falls back towards trendline support.
  • Nevertheless, need a close below the Fibonacci overlap around $55.10 (61.8% expansion) to $55.60 (61.8% retracement) to open up the $51.40 (50% retracement) to $52.10 (50% expansion) region, which lines up with the February-low ($51.23).
  • Next downside area of interest comes in around $49.00 (38.2% expansion) to $49.80 (78.6% retracement) followed by the overlap around $44.50 (78.6% retracement) to $45.40 (38.2% retracement).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 1Q 2019 Forecast for Oil

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.