News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.02% Silver: -0.10% Oil - US Crude: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/qKzhq3VVN3
  • Coinbase’s impending initial public offering could provide the necessary fuel for Bitcoin to push to fresh record highs in the coming days. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/twdu0zHY7m https://t.co/Bz8Go9K72L
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.07% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.03% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.02% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/A5TMlQSzQP
  • RT @BrendanFaganFx: Australian Dollar Falls as Jobs Data Shows Decline in Full-Time Employment $AUD $USD #Australia Link: https://t.co/k…
  • $USDSGD broke under the key 1.3375 - 1.3389 inflection zone over the last 24 hours Took out the 50-day SMA as well, awaiting confirmation This may open the door to revisiting January lows, especially if US yields continue to lose upside momentum #Singapore #SGD https://t.co/pIXS201NhI
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.84%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 75.65%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/7WRQzbHU0c
  • $AUDUSD is dropping following the March employment report, which showed a decrease in full-time jobs. The RBA highlighted the pandemic's outsized impact on full-time employment in the Feb monetary policy statement. Full-time change: -20.8k Part-time change: +91.5k https://t.co/rlgjmjb9kP
  • Nasdaq 100 Retreats as Coinbase Falls, May Cast a Shadow on Hang Seng and ASX 200 https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/04/15/Nasdaq-100-Retreats-as-Coinbase-Falls-May-Cast-a-Shadow-on-Hang-Seng-and-ASX-200-.html https://t.co/ZvcDnwXQ4e
  • PBOC Conducts 150 billion Yuan of 1-year MLF at 2.95% - rolls over earlier MLF, TMLF with 150 billion Yuan MLF operations - BBG $USDCNH
  • 🇦🇺 Full Time Employment Chg (MAR) Actual: -20.8K Previous: 89.1K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-15
AUD/USD Rebound Unravels as China Pledges to Retaliate to U.S. Tariffs

AUD/USD Rebound Unravels as China Pledges to Retaliate to U.S. Tariffs

David Song, Strategist

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD gives back the advance from earlier this month as China pledges to retaliate to an additional $200B in U.S. tariffs, and recent price action raises the risk for a larger pullback as the exchange rate snaps the series of higher highs & lows from the previous week.

Image of daily change for major currnecies

AUD/USD Rebound Unravels as China Pledges to Retaliate to U.S. Tariffs

Image of daily change for AUDUSD

The growing threat of a trade war may continue to sap the appeal of the Australian dollar as it clouds the economic outlook for the Asia/Pacific region, and the ongoing spat between the U.S. and China, Australia’s largest trading partner, may keep the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on the sidelines as ‘one uncertainty regarding the global outlook stems from the direction of international trade policy.’

As a result, the RBA may merely attempt to buy more time at the next meeting on August 7, and Governor Philip Lowe & Co. may continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as ‘the low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy.’ With that said, the lack of urgency to lift the official cash rate (OCR) off of the record-low may continue to produce headwinds for AUD/USD especially as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) looks poised to deliver a 25bp rate-hike in September, and the pair may continue to track the bearish trend from earlier this year as Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. warn that ‘it would likely be appropriate to continue gradually raising the target range for the federal funds rate to a setting that was at or somewhat above their estimates of its longer-run level by 2019 or 2020.

Image of IG Client Sentiment for AUDUSD

Keep in mind, the IG Client Sentiment Report shows traders have been net-long AUD/USD since June 5 when the exchange rate traded near 0.75665 even though price has moved 2.4% lower since then. Nevertheless, net-long positions continue to narrow from recent highs, with the number of positions 8.1% higher than yesterday and 4.2% lower from last week. At the same time, the number of traders net-short aussie-dollar is 14.5% lower than yesterday and 1.1% higher from last week as the recent rebound in the exchange rate appears to be losing momentum.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Image of AUDUSD daily chart
  • Broader outlook for AUD/USD remains tilted to the downside as the pair continues to track the downward trend from earlier this year, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) still highlighting a similar dynamic.
  • The failed attempt to clear the Fibonacci overlap around 0.7500 (50% retracement) to 0.7530 (38.2% expansion) may give way to range-bound prices as the bullish series snaps, with a close below the 0.7400 (38.2% expansion) handle raising the risk for a move back towards 0.7320 (50% expansion) to 0.7340 (61.8% retracement), which largely lines up with the monthly-low (0.7311).

Interested in having a broader discussion on current market themes? Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups!

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2018.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES