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Gold Price Outlook Mired by Failed Run at 200-Day SMA

Gold Price Outlook Mired by Failed Run at 200-Day SMA

David Song, Strategist


Gold prices are under pressure following the upbeat figures surrounding the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, and recent price action raises the risk for a further decline in the precious metal as the rebound from the 2018-low ($1282) unravels.

Image of daily change for major currencies


Image of daily change for gold prices

The 233K print for NFP along with the unexpected pickup in U.S. Average Hourly Earnings pushed bullion to a fresh weekly-low ($1289), and gold prices may exhibit a more bearish behavior over the coming days as the fresh developments coming out of the world’s largest economy puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adopt a more aggressive approach in normalizing monetary policy.

Image of Fed Fund Futures

Even though Fed Fund Futures continue to reflect limited expectations for four rate-hikes in 2018, U.S. Treasury Yields have also recovered coming into June especially as Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. are widely expected to deliver a 25bp rate-hike later this month. Keep in mind, the updated projections from Fed officials may largely influence the outlook for gold prices as the committee pledges to phase out the forward-guidance for monetary policy, and hints of an extended hiking-cycle may push bullion back towards the December-low ($1236) as market participants prepare for higher interest rates.


Image of gold daily chart
  • Near-term outlook for XAU/USD remains mired by the string of failed attempts to push back above the 200-Day ($1307) simple-moving average (SMA), with gold prices at risk of threatening the recent range as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to track the bearish formation from earlier this year.
  • Still need a break/close below the $1288 (23.6% expansion) to $1291 (50% expansion) region to look for a move towards $1271 (38.2% expansion) to $1279 (38.2% retracement), with the next area of interest coming in around $1260 (23.6% expansion).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q2 Forecast for Gold

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.