We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The trio of central banks overseeing the commodity currencies have already cut their main rates to all-time lows. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/OSUXrN5P3j https://t.co/3nwDel6e28
  • The tension from March continues to subside, allowing for the $USD to slide to fresh two-month-lows. Get your currencies market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/bRSRjUqg6Z https://t.co/Q35YpIZEd2
  • López Obrador hopes #USMCA will help tighten trade relationships between the US and Mexico. Get your currencies market update from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/bZrUKSCGaS https://t.co/MZ7UoiWWRj
  • The $AUD may suffer as relations between Australia and China deteriorate amid dwindling growth prospects. Euro traders will be closely watching progress in talks about a €500b recovery fund proposal. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/sofO135ElG
  • The US Dollar could rise against #ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar as US-China tensions seem to escalate. The Indian Rupee is also looking ahead of local 1Q GDP data. Get your ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/ZGFaQQ3Hr2
  • The #Euro is the big driver here for DXY as it is 57% of the index. It is rising now and trying to break above the March 27 high at 11147. Get your $EURUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/6gt3F9LuGP https://t.co/73SaL5AeXD
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/EIC9YqfTec
  • Anybody else think that casting directors in movies are some of the most underrated people when it comes to giving a film/series credit?
  • No https://t.co/EoBltaP17k
  • Crude #oilprices may face heightened liquidation pressure as the cycle-sensitive #commodity finds itself under the pressure of resilient resistance and a vulnerable, multi-week rising channel. Get your crude #oil market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/cGPX4qcOH1 https://t.co/0U4JMJVFuf
Oil Prices Risk Further Losses as U.S. Output Approaches Record-High

Oil Prices Risk Further Losses as U.S. Output Approaches Record-High

2017-08-28 14:38:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Clings to Bullish Formation Ahead of RBA Meeting.

- USOIL Remains Under Pressure Despite Hurricane Harvey, U.S. Output Approaches Record-High.

- Sign Up for the DailyFX Trading Webinarsfor an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

DailyFX Table

Ticker

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

AUD/USD

0.7942

0.7954

0.7914

10

40

AUD/USD appears to be on its way to test the 2017-high (0.8066) as the recent developments coming out of the Australian economy put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to remove the record-low cash rate.

Even though the 27.9K expansion in Australia Employment was largely driven by part-time positions, the unexpected pickup in the Participation Rate instills an improved outlook for the real economy as discouraged workers return to the labor force. As a result, Governor Philip Lowe and Co. may adopt a more upbeat tone at the next policy meeting on September 5, and the Australian dollar may exhibit a more bullish behavior over the remainder of the year as central bank officials forecast a ‘neutral nominal cash rate of around 3½ per cent, given that medium-term inflation expectations were well anchored around 2½ per cent.’

However, the RBA may merely attempt to buy more time as ‘ongoing low wage growth and the high level of debt on household balance sheets raised the possibility that consumption growth could be lower than forecast,’ and the Australian dollar stands at risk of facing a more bearish fate as the central bank toughens the verbal intervention on the local currency and warns ‘an appreciating exchange rate would be expected to result in a slower pick-up in economic activity and inflation than currently forecast.’

See how shifts in AUD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Click here to learn more about sentiment!

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • Near-term outlook for AUD/USD remains constructive after failing to test the former-resistance zone around 0.7720 (23.6% retracement) to 0.7770 (61.8% expansion), with the pair at risk for a larger advance as it comes off of channel support.
  • At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be threatening the bearish formation carried over from the previous month, with a close above the 0.7940 (61.8% retracement) hurdle opening up the next region of interest around 0.8020 (38.2% retracement) followed by the 2017-high (0.8066).

Ticker

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (S)

Daily Range (S)

USOIL

46.66

48.14

46.65

0.55

1.49

Crude struggles to recoup the losses from earlier this month, with oil prices at risk for further decline as the U.S. approaches record-output.

EIA

Even though Hurricane Harvey halts production around the U.S. Gulf coast, fresh figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed field production climbing to 9,528K b/d in the week ending August 18 to mark a fresh 2017-high. With output quickly approaching the record-high (9,610K b/d), the ongoing expansion in U.S. capacity continues to cast a long-term bearish outlook for crude prices even as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increases its effort to rebalance the energy market.

USOIL Daily Chart

USOIL Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • Crude oil pared the decline from earlier this month as the $46.40 (50% expansion) region offered support, but the downside targets remain on the radar for USOIL as it continues to operate within the downward trending channel carried over from the end of February.
  • May see USOIL continue to come off of the upper bounds of the channel especially as the near-term price action remains capped by the former-support zone around $48.60 (38.2% retracement); next downside region of interest comes in around $44.90 (78.6% retracement) to $45.30 (23.6% expansion) followed by Fibonacci overlap around $44.10 (61.8% retracement) to $44.50 (78.6% retracement).

Retail Sentiment

Retail Sentiment
  • Retail trader data shows 34.2% of traders are net-long AUD/USD with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.93 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since June 04 when AUD/USD traded near 0.74772; price has moved 6.3% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 11.3% higher than yesterday and 4.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.6% higher than yesterday and 6.4% higher from last week.
  • Retail trader data shows 70.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.41 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since August 14 when Oil - US Crude traded near 4776.5; price has moved 0.8% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 12.1% higher than yesterday and 56.3% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.2% lower than yesterday and 24.4% lower from last week.
DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.