We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The $USD is surging in response to the latest NFP report which just revealed the US economy added 266K jobs in November which smashed estimates looking for a gain of 180K jobs. Get your #NFP update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/jQE4SMmbCl #JobsReport https://t.co/C0kl1cf2CX
  • $USDCAD is up over 75 pips since this morning as CAD employment data slumps for the month of November https://t.co/CGvYdwP9s2
  • US adds 266k jobs in November, beating the expectation by a large margin
  • $Gold snap back on $USD run post #NFP - testing support at prior resistance ~1466 https://t.co/du2e2A3Lh5
  • RT @jsblokland: So what's up with #payrolls? #ADP payroll number just +67K, lowest number since May. Nonfarm payrolls up a whopping 266K, h…
  • RT @ericbeebo: This payrolls print was so strong it dragged up the 3-mth average private payrolls by a full 30k to 200k https://t.co/xCAwNo…
  • US Dollar Soars as Firm Jobs Report Underscores Less Dovish Fed https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2019/12/06/usd-price-us-dollar-outlook-jobs-report-nfp-nonfarm-payrolls.html $USD $DXY #Forex #Trading #Analysis #FOMC #NFP
  • what a rip in $USDCAD https://t.co/5nd5aU0pmP
  • Christ!!! Double whammy for $CAD - Strong NFP + Shockingly Weak Canadian Employment report - CAD unemployment rises 0.4ppts even with the participation rate dropping - What did BoC's Lane say about not considering insurance rate cuts? ..... Time to rethink that
  • $USD springboard on this #NFP print - right back up to 97.70 zone. Still early but can it hold? https://t.co/ViLiiym6vt
USD/JPY Clings to 115.10 Hurdle Ahead of FOMC Rate-Hike

USD/JPY Clings to 115.10 Hurdle Ahead of FOMC Rate-Hike

2017-03-14 14:58:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Clings to 115.10 Hurdle Ahead of Fed Rate-Hike; Outlook Hinges on Interest Rate Dot-Plot.

- EUR/USD Fails Again at 1.0680 Hurdle; Downside Targets in Focus Going Into Dutch Election.

DailyFX Table

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

USD/JPY

114.64

115.20

114.56

24

64

USD/JPY Daily

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • USD/JPY appears to be making another run at 115.10 (50% retracement) especially as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to deliver a 25bp rate-hike on Wednesday, and the fresh developments coming out of the central bank may heighten the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback as Chair Janet Yellen and Co. appear to be on course to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months; however, another failed attempt to close above the topside hurdle raises the risk for a near-term pullback as the pair continue to operate within the downward trending channel carried over from December.
Fed Table

Source:FRB

  • With Fed Fund Futures still pricing a greater than 90% probability for a March rate-hike, the fresh updates to the interest rate dot-plot may heavily influence the dollar-yen exchange rate as market participants gauge the future path of the Fed’s normalization cycle; comments endorsing a June rate-hike should fuel rebound from the monthly low (111.69) amid the diverging paths for monetary policy, but a bearish scenario may unfoldfor the greenback should Fed officials highlight a more shallow path for the fed funds rate.
  • With that said, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to retain a dovish tone at its March 16 interest rate decision and may keep the door open to further embark on its easing-cycle as the central bank struggles to achieve the 2% target for inflation; market participants may show a limited reaction to the BoJ as the central bank sticks to its Quantitative/Qualitative Easing (QQE) program with Yield-Curve Control, but Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Co. may come under pressure to boost its non-standard measures as the central bank pledges to keep the 10-Year yield close to zero.
  • Broader outlook for USD/JPY remains constructive followed the failed attempts to break below the Fibonacci overlap around 111.30 (50% retracement) to 111.60 (38.2% retracement), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserves the bullish formation carried over from the previous year; need a close above the 115.10 (50% retracement) hurdle to open up the next topside area of interest around 117.00 (38.2% retracement) to 116.10 (78.6% expansion) followed by 117.00 (23.6% retracement).

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

EUR/USD

1.0639

1.0663

1.0626

14

37

EUR/USD Daily

USD/JPY Clings to 115.10 Hurdle Ahead of FOMC Rate-Hike

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • EUR/USD continues to give back the advance from earlier this month, with the pair at risk for further losses as it marks another failed attempt to close above the near-term hurdle around 1.0660 (50% expansion) to 1.0680 (78.6% expansion); broader outlook remains tilted to the downside as the European Central Bank (ECB) continues to pursue its easing-cycle.
  • The single-currency may face increased volatility over the comings days with the Dutch election underway, while the U.K. edges closer to triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty; the geopolitical risks surrounding the euro-area may force President Mario Draghi and Co. to further support the monetary union as the ‘balance of risks to the economic outlook was seen as remaining on the downside.’
  • However, the ECB appears to be in no rush to further expand its balance sheet and the central bank may try to buy more time at its next policy meeting on April 27 as the Governing Council remains on course to reduce its asset-purchases to EUR 60B/month; may see President Draghi and Co. increase their efforts to ward off a ‘taper tantrum’ as they struggle to achieve their one and only mandate for price stability.
  • Failure to close above 1.0660 (50% expansion) to 1.0680 (78.6% expansion) may spur a move back towards the lower bounds of the recent range, with the first downside target coming in around 1.0600 (23.6% expansion) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around 1.0470 (38.2% expansion) to 1.0500 (50% expansion).

For More Updates, Join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song for LIVE Analysis!

Click HERE for the Entire DailyFX Webinar schedule.

DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides.

Read More:

Technical Weekly: USD/JPY 115.50-116.00 is a Clear Trading Barrier

S&P 500 Pulls Back to Support and Holds; Rip to New Highs or Consolidation Next?

What To Watch On The Breakdown In Oil & Gold As DXY Accelerates

PBOC, Fed Remain Key Drivers to Yuan

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.