News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out:
  • Further your trading knowledge and gain informed market analyses from our expert analyst @DavidJSong on Oil with our free Q4 guide, available for free today.
  • Nasdaq 100 may hit new high soon.
  • HSTECH index has likely formed an "Inverse Head & Shoulders" pattern.
  • The HSI has likely formed a “Double Bottom” chart pattern, which is usually viewed as bullish-biased.
  • When markets are falling, how can you short sell? Learn more here:
  • Futures have their own set of characteristics and appeal to different types of traders and investors for a variety of reasons. Get your free trading guide and learn to trade the markets with futures here. Download your guide today!
  • Relative stability in EUR/USD has masked weakness in the Euro against most other major currencies, and that weakness can be expected to persist in the week ahead and likely for longer. Get your weekly Euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here:
  • Gold prices moved higher last week, but an upbeat US retail sales report underpinned Treasury yields on Friday, which weighed on bullion. Chinese Q3 GDP is in focus for XAU traders. Get your weekly gold forecast from @FxWestwater here:
AUD/USD Bull-Flag Formation Unfolds Ahead of NFP, RBA Rate Decision

AUD/USD Bull-Flag Formation Unfolds Ahead of NFP, RBA Rate Decision

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Eyes November High; Bull-Flag Formation Unfolds Following Record Trade Surplus.

- GBP/USD to Track Late-2016 Range as BoE Caps Inflation Outlook.

DailyFX Table





Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)








AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • AUD/USD may continue to retrace the decline from the November high (0.7778) as a bull-flag formation appears to be playing out after Australia posted the largest trade surplus since the series began in 1971; will keep a close eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it flirts with overbought territory, with a definitive move above 70 raising the risk for a further advance in the exchange rate as the bullish momentum gathers pace.
  • Ahead of the RBA’s first policy meeting for 2017, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may curb the recent advance in the aussie-dollar as the economy is anticipated to add another 175K jobs in January, but a slowdown in Average Hourly Earnings may further dampen the case for a March rate-hike and produce near-term headwinds for the greenback as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) warns ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
  • Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to retain the current policy at the February 7 interest rate decision, the improvement in the terms of trade may encourage Governor Philip Lowe and Co. to adopt a hawkish outlook for monetary policy, as the central bank argues ‘globally, the outlook for inflation is more balanced than it has been for some time;’ nevertheless, more of the same from the RBA may lead to a limited market reaction, with the broader outlook for AUD/USD still tilted to the downside as Fed Fund Futures continue to highlight a greater than 60% probability for a June rate-hike.
  • With the RSI pushing its way into overbought territory, the topside targets remain favored over the days ahead, with the next hurdle coming in around 0.7730 (61.8% retracement) to 0.7740 (78.8% expansion) followed by 0. 7770 (61.8% expansion) to 0.7778 (November high).





Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)








AUD/USD Bull-Flag Formation Unfolds Ahead of NFP, RBA Rate Decision

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • The bearish market reaction to the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision may open up the late-2016 range for the British Pound as GBP/USD makes another failed attempt to close above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.2630 (38.2% expansion) to 2.12680 (50% retracement); the unanimous vote to retain the current policy keeps the broader outlook for sterling tilted to the downside especially as the U.K.’s departure from the European Union (EU) clouds the economic outlook for the region.
  • Even though the Governor Mark Carney and Co. sees faster growth over the policy horizon, it seems as though the central bank is in no rush to remove its highly accommodative policy as the inflation outlook was largely in-line with the November forecast, with officials still projecting inflation to peak at an annualized 2.8% in the second quarter of 2018; the wait-and see approach by both the BoE & Fed may foster range-bound conditions throughout the first quarter of 2017 as recent remarks from Chair Yellen and Co. tame expectations for a March rate-hike.
  • As GBP/USD carves a bearish harami (outside-day) candle, the downside targets will be on the radar going into the first full-week of February, with a break/close below 1.2460 (61.8% expansion) to 1.2490 (38.2% retracement) opening up the next region of interest around 1.2370 (50% expansion) followed by 1.2270 (23.6% retracement).

For More Updates, Join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song for LIVE Analysis!

Click HERE for the Entire DailyFX Webinar schedule.

DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides.

Read More:

DailyFX Roundtable: BoJ, Fed and BoE Preview

GBP/USD to Take Cues From FOMC/BoE Interest Rate Outlook

Technical Weekly: Is USD/CHF the Tell?Gold Prices Back Below 1200- Here’s the Game Plan

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.