News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇲🇽 Balance of Trade (SEP) due at 12:00 GMT (15min) Expected: $3.795B Previous: $6.116B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-27
  • EU Commission says both the EU and UK are engaging intensively to reach a deal $GBP
  • There are many different types of forex orders, which traders use to manage their trades. While these may vary between different brokers, there tends to be several basic FX order types all brokers accept. Learn about different FX order types here: https://t.co/lIJdiz4xSz https://t.co/kERhNpX24T
  • 🇫🇷 Unemployment Benefit Claims (SEP) Actual: -15.2K Previous: -171K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-27
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.88%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 72.94%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/vSpkpJR5DJ
  • Heads Up:🇫🇷 Unemployment Benefit Claims (SEP) due at 11:00 GMT (15min) Previous: -171K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-27
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.36% Silver: 0.20% Gold: -0.18% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/R4iP2hBi7y
  • The AB=CD pattern is simple once you know how to spot it and draw the proper Fibonacci retracements. Make your trading strategy as simple as ABCD here: https://t.co/AKmlmaAZBS https://t.co/opRjJQoGPZ
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.21% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.17% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.14% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.00% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.01% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.16% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/sbn9fdKRMA
  • If you're in the UK or Western Europe this will be an hour earlier than previously because of the clocks going back... https://t.co/mhvbYLCAkA
NZD/USD Losses Accelerate as RBNZ Endorses Dovish Outlook

NZD/USD Losses Accelerate as RBNZ Endorses Dovish Outlook

2016-10-11 16:45:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Holds Monthly Opening Range Ahead of Fed Event Risk.

- NZD/USD Losses Accelerate as RBNZ Endorses Dovish Outlook.

DailyFX

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

USD/JPY

103.41

104.07

103.31

20

76

USD/JPY Daily

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • The failed test of the monthly opening range may spur range-bound prices in USD/JPY as market attention turns to the slew of Fed rhetoric on tap over the remainder of the week; broader outlook remains tilted to the downside as price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserve the bearish formations from earlier this year, with near-term resistance holding at 104.20 (61.8% retracement).
  • With Fed Funds Futures now highlighting a 70% probability for a December rate-hike, fresh comments from the 2016 voting-members (New York Fed President William Dudley, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Chair Janet Yellen)may fuel the near-term advance in USD/JPY should the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric boost interest-rate expectations; however, the pair may continue to come off of the monthly high (104.15) should the key officials endorse a ‘gradual’ path in normalizing monetary policy.
  • Will keep a close eye on the narrow range, with a break/close below 102.60 (38.2% expansion) raising the risk of a move back towards 102.10 (100% expansion), followed by 101.20 (50% expansion).

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

NZD/USD

0.7069

0.7142

0.7049

67

93

NZD/USD Daily

NZD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • NZD/USD extends the losses from earlier this week as Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Assistant Governor John McDermott endorses a dovish outlook for monetary policy and reiterates that the ‘current projections and assumptions indicate that further policy easing will be required to ensure that future inflation settles near the middle of the target range,’ and the New Zealand dollar stands at risk of facing a further decline over the days ahead as a head-and-shoulders top formation appears to be panning out; measured move highlights the risk for a break below the 0.7000 handle.
  • Growing speculation for another rate-cut at the RBNZ’s last 2016 policy meeting on November 10 may continue to drag on the exchange rate, with the region’s 3Q Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due out on October 18 likely to shape market expectations as the central bank struggles to achieve the 1 to 3 percent target-band for inflation.
  • Will keep a close eye on the RSI as it flirts with oversold territory, with a break/close below 0.7050 (78.6% retracement) raising the risk for a move back towards the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6950 (38.2% retracement) to 0.6970 (50% retracement) which coincides with the July low (0.6950).
DailyFX SSI
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the USD/JPY ratio continues to narrow from the 2016 extreme of +6.03, while traders have flipped to net-long NZD/USD during the second-full week of October.
  • USD/JPY SSI currently sits at +1.37 as 58% of traders are long, with short positions 8.7% higher from the previous week, while open interest stands 10.8% below the monthly average.
  • NZD/USD SSI currently sits at +1.47 as 60% of traders are long, with long positions 32.4% higher from the previous week, while open interest stands 1.3% below the monthly average.
  • Will keep a close eye on the advance in NZD/USD SSI as the retail appears to be stuck on the wrong side of the market following the near-term decline.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

Read More:

COT-Extreme Changes in Gold and Crude Positioning

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: With Oil Above $50, Could Loonie Liftoff?

Market Move Approaching: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 & Dow in View

USD/CAD Plunges as Russia Signals Readiness to Cap Oil Production

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES