News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Dollar gained, pushing USD/SGD to break higher. However, USD/IDR may be looking at losses ahead. USD/MYR struggled to breach the March trendline. USD/PHP could rise.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/6W76mWMRrJ https://t.co/ukJG4eqDK0
  • The #DowJones and #SP500 have as of today averaged: -2.16% & 1.43% 3-months and 1-year before #Election2020 respectively What could this mean for the incumbent president/Trump next week? 👇 https://t.co/e4EyLTzRXl
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.14% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.04% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.01% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.18% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.22% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/XuMcr136y1
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.86% Gold: 0.58% Oil - US Crude: 0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/hojorwKSRk
  • USD/ZAR: New support may be established at the 16.1000 zone as the price pushed off this level after uncertainty around US stimulus negotiations. Get your $USDZAR market update from @WVenketas here:https://t.co/AQaNSMuZce https://t.co/Fg8uMAYtiU
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.39%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 62.91%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/PzjdeSuKfy
  • France records 545 Covid deaths, most since April 20 - BBG
  • US Equity Update (Friday Close): $DJI -0.58% $SPX -1.21% $NDX -2.62% $RUT -1.48% $VIX +0.48%
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.17% Germany 30: 0.10% Wall Street: 0.06% US 500: 0.03% FTSE 100: -0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/73hNnCZ3p7
  • Update on #Cryptocurrencies #BITCOIN +0.22% #BITCOINCASH -3.14% #ETHEREUM -1.54% #RIPPLE -2.62% #LITECOIN -2.14%
Focus Shifts to AUD/USD Amid Bets for RBA Rate-Cut

Focus Shifts to AUD/USD Amid Bets for RBA Rate-Cut

2016-07-29 15:00:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Preserves Near-Term Bullish Formation Ahead of RBA Rate-Decision.

- USDOLLAR Extends Losses as 2Q GDP Report Disappoints.

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created by David Song

  • Even though AUD/USD largely preserves the upward trend carried over from the end of May, the near-term outlook remains clouded amid the divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI); need a break of the bearish formation in the oscillator to favor a larger advance in the exchange rate.
  • Nevertheless, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decision on August 2 may produce near-term headwinds for the Aussie should Governor Glenn Stevens and Co. further embark on the easing cycle; according to a Bloomberg News survey, 20 of the 25 economists polled forecast the central bank to reduce the official cash rate to a fresh record-low of 1.50% from the current 1.75%.
  • A bullish RSI trigger accompanied by a break/closing price above the Fibonacci overlap around 0.7580 (50% retracement) to 0.7600 (23.6% retracement) may open up the topside targets, with the next region of interest coming in around 0.7650 (78.6% retracement) to 0.7676 (July high).
DailyFX SSI
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows a bit of back and forth in retail positioning going into the end of the month, with the FX crowd flipping net-short AUD/USD earlier this morning.
  • The ratio currently sits at -1.01 as 50% of traders are long, with long positions 12.9% lower from the previous week, while open interest stands 2.4% below the monthly average.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

US Dollar Index

11954.88

12049.49

11954.88

-0.83

175.95%

Focus Shifts to AUD/USD Amid Bets for RBA Rate-CutUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created by David Song

  • The USDOLLAR extends the decline from earlier this week as the advance 2Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report falls short of market expectations; even though the greenback fails to break the July low (11,953), the reserve currency stands at risk of facing additional headwinds as the weaker-than-expected recovery undermines the Federal Reserve’s scope to further normalize monetary policy in 2016.
  • Even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) keeps the door open to raise the benchmark interest rate at the next quarterly policy meeting in September, central bank officials may continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach ahead of the U.S. Presidential election in November amid the uncertainty surrounding the fiscal outlook.
  • A break/close below 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement) may open up the next downside target around 11,898 (50% retracement) to 11,914 (38.2% retracement).
DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

Read More:

S&P 500: Sharply Unchanged, Consolidating or Topping?

COT-British Pound Ownership Profile Warns of a Bottom

Post-Brexit NZDUSD Support Vulnerable to Weak NZ Trade Balance

USD/JPY July Recovery at Risk on Wait-and-See FOMC/BoJ Policy

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES